The Grey Eviction Risk: Moderate

Severe burden reaches 35%. A tenant at that level absorbs no shock: one cut shift or one repair bill converts directly into arrears. The clearest offset is supply constraint, at 1/10. At $1,027 a month, rents sit 35% under what the rest of Raleigh commands.

This is a renter market: 77% of occupied units are tenant-occupied. Annualized rent equals 34% of average household income here, past the 30% affordability line, which compresses the margin any screening standard has to work with.

On the softer side is rent-regulation exposure, at 2/10. The poverty rate is 21%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than the filing statistics suggest.

16.5% of adults report being unable to pay a utility bill, against a 9.2% national figure. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. Court records for this tract carry 200 eviction filings.

CDC survey data puts housing insecurity at 22.1% of adults, against 14.2% nationally. The worst year on record was 2016, when filings touched 14.5% of renter households. That places it #1 of 107 neighborhoods in Raleigh.

Judgments average 9.4% of renter households a year, the share of filings that actually convert to an order. The closest comparables inside the same city are Arden Forest and Lands End at Eaglechase. Social vulnerability runs high at 9.2/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input.

One tract means one number: 5.5/10 applies directly to any address inside the boundary. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.