Heritage Park/Ridge Eviction Risk: Lower

At $1,450 a month, rents sit 45% over what the rest of Bismarck commands. The voucher gap is 41.7%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which shows up as churn rather than arrears.

The dominant input is supply constraint at 9.2/10. Running cool is rent-regulation exposure, at 1/10.

On the softer side is tenant-organizing strength, at 1/10. The severe-burden share is 19%. Those renters are past the 50% mark, and they miss rent for reasons that have nothing to do with willingness to pay. CDC survey data puts housing insecurity at 4.8% of adults, against 14.2% nationally.

Food insecurity affects 4.9% of adults, 12.9 points below the national rate. Among the 4 mapped neighborhoods of Bismarck, it ranks #4 by risk, the lower third.

Only 6% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin here; price renewals off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. The closest comparables inside the same city are Edgewood North and Little Canada. Against average income of $145,208, annual rent is only 12%, a wide affordability cushion.

Poverty sits at 1%, low enough that arrears here usually reflect a specific shock rather than a structural income gap.

One tract means one number: 3/10 applies directly to any address inside the boundary. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.