Heritage Park/Ridge Eviction Risk: Lower , Bismarck

The voucher gap is 41.7%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. What pushes it up most is supply constraint at 9.2/10. On the softer side, rent-regulation exposure reads 1/10.

Well under the midpoint, tenant-organizing strength reads 1/10. Against Burleigh County at 34.1%, 44% of renters here are cost-burdened.

The severe-burden share is 19%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. Food insecurity runs 4.9% against 17.8% nationally. It sits 0.6 points below the Burleigh County average of 3.6.

Inability to pay a utility bill runs 3.2% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. That is riskier than roughly 20% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. Only 6% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices.

On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 1.3/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.