Within neighborhood
40
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #41,206 of 84,120 nationally
Walnut Hills Eviction Risk: Moderate , Dayton
Tract 39113003403 · Montgomery County, OH · pop 3,558 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi
39113003403 is a census tract in the Walnut Hills area of Dayton, OH. It scores 4.5/10 for landlords. It is home to 3,558 residents. What pushes it up most is economic stress at 9.6/10.
Risk score
4.5
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 24%
Stable renters 20%
Owners 56%
Tract context
Occupied units74
Renter share44.6%
SVI overall0.18
Poverty rate38.4%
Median income$111,875
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
8
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
57
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
62
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Dayton and the region
Centroid at 39.7370, -84.1706 · click any tract to drill in
Why Walnut Hills scores 4.5
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Dayton
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Ohio legislature & governorship
2.4
Economic stress
38.4% poverty · this tract
9.6
Supply constraint
$1,053 rent vs county FMR
4.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from Dayton
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Dayton
4.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Dayton
3.5
How Walnut Hills compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 18
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 67%Socioeconomic
- 0%Household composition
- 28%Racial/ethnic minority
- 45%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 1%Grade B
- 7%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 43Total filings over 15 yrs
- 7.13%Avg annual filing rate
- 18.3%Peak (2007)
- 1Filings in 2018 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Walnut Hills. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 13.4%Housing insecurity
- 9.9%Utility-shutoff threat
- 20.4%Food insecurity
- 15.5%SNAP enrollment
- 15.7%Transit barriers
- 8.3%No health insurance
- 30.2%Frequent mental distress
- 33.5%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Walnut Hills
The poverty rate is 38%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Against Montgomery County at 42.9%, 55% of renters here are cost-burdened.
On the softer side, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.5/10. Running hot, court filing pressure reads 7.7/10.
Court records carry 43 eviction filings across 15 observed years. Severe burden reaches 9%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.
Average gross rent is $1,053, 15% above the Dayton average. Filings peaked in 2007 at 18.3% of renter households.
This ground was mapped C ("Definitely Declining") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Dayton. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above. In a typical year about 7.1% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 51st percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.
CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 2.6/10.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 39113003403
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 39113003403?
Census tract 39113003403 in the Walnut Hills neighborhood scores 4.5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 39113003403?
Median gross rent is $1,053/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 55% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 39113003403?
38.4% of residents in tract 39113003403 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,558.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 39113003403?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 18th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 67th, household 0th, minority 28th, housing 45th.
Q5
Is tract 39113003403 considered part of Walnut Hills?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 39113003403 fall within Walnut Hills (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 39113003403?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 43 eviction filings across 15 validated years in tract 39113003403 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 7.13% of renter households, peaking at 18.3% in 2007. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 39113003403 struggle to pay rent?
About 13.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 9.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 39113003403 compare to Dayton overall?
Tract 39113003403 scores 4.5/10, higher than the parent city of Dayton at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Dayton eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 39113003403 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Dayton
Top eight tracts in Dayton ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · OH
39113000400
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
Huffman Historic District
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
Dunbar Historic District
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
39113000500
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
Twin Towers
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
Dunbar Historic District
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
Huffman Historic District
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
Dunbar Historic District
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
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