Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #24,859 of 84,120 nationally
Walnut Hills Eviction Risk: Moderate , Dayton
Tract 39113003201 · Montgomery County, OH · pop 3,996 · neighborhood within 1.2 mi
39113003201 is a census tract in the Walnut Hills area of Dayton, OH. It scores 5.4/10 for landlords. The severe-burden share is 27%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
5.4
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 33%
Stable renters 29%
Owners 38%
Tract context
Occupied units1,939
Renter share62.1%
SVI overall0.45
Poverty rate24.9%
Median income$47,023
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
88
th percentile
High
Within county
91
th percentile
Very High
Within state
83
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Dayton and the region
Centroid at 39.7250, -84.1585 · click any tract to drill in
Why Walnut Hills scores 5.4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Dayton
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Ohio legislature & governorship
2.4
Economic stress
24.9% poverty · this tract
6.2
Supply constraint
$990 rent vs county FMR
4.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Dayton
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Dayton
4.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Dayton
3.5
How Walnut Hills compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 45
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 63%Socioeconomic
- 9%Household composition
- 42%Racial/ethnic minority
- 56%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: B: Still Desirable
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade B meant middle-class areas with mortgage access. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 94%Grade B
- 0%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 780Total filings over 17 yrs
- 4.28%Avg annual filing rate
- 6.4%Peak (2009)
- 54Filings in 2018 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 100% over the past 17 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Walnut Hills. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 13.7%Housing insecurity
- 11.1%Utility-shutoff threat
- 17.8%Food insecurity
- 16.4%SNAP enrollment
- 10.6%Transit barriers
- 7.9%No health insurance
- 19.6%Frequent mental distress
- 29.9%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Walnut Hills
The clearest offset is rent-regulation exposure at 1.5/10. Against Montgomery County at 42.9%, 54% of renters here are cost-burdened. The poverty rate is 25%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest.
Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 7.7/10. Against the Montgomery County average of 4.2, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.2 points. Well under the midpoint, state political climate reads 2.4/10.
Court records carry 780 eviction filings across 17 observed years. The worst year on record was 2009, when 6.4% of renter households were served.
This ground was mapped B ("Still Desirable") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Dayton. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above. In a typical year about 4.3% of renter households face a filing.
That is riskier than roughly 70% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. Social vulnerability reads 5.1/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Statewide the OH average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.2 points hotter.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 39113003201
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 39113003201?
Census tract 39113003201 in the Walnut Hills neighborhood scores 5.4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 39113003201?
Median gross rent is $990/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 54% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 39113003201?
24.9% of residents in tract 39113003201 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,996.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 39113003201?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 45th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 63th, household 9th, minority 42th, housing 56th.
Q5
Is tract 39113003201 considered part of Walnut Hills?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 39113003201 fall within Walnut Hills (neighborhood centroid within 1.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 39113003201?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 780 eviction filings across 17 validated years in tract 39113003201 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 4.28% of renter households, peaking at 6.4% in 2009. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 39113003201 struggle to pay rent?
About 13.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 11.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 39113003201 compare to Dayton overall?
Tract 39113003201 scores 5.4/10, higher than the parent city of Dayton at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Dayton eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 39113003201 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of B. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Dayton
Top eight tracts in Dayton ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · OH
39113000400
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
Huffman Historic District
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
Dunbar Historic District
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
39113000500
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
Twin Towers
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
Dunbar Historic District
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
Huffman Historic District
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
Dunbar Historic District
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
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