Neighborhood · Ranked #67,219 of 84,120 nationally
Timber Creek Eviction Risk: Lower , Broken Arrow
Tract 40145030511 ·
Wagoner County, OK · pop 3,386 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi
Census tract 40145030511 covers part of the Timber Creek area of Broken Arrow, OK, and scores 3/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 3,386. Against Wagoner County at 39.6%, about a quarter of renters here are cost-burdened.
Risk score
3
Lower
Confidence 70% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 1%Stable renters 2%Owners 97%
Tract context
Occupied units1,244
Renter share2.3%
SVI overall0.13
Poverty rate3.8%
Median income$114,278
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50th percentile
#1 of 1 tracts In Timber Creek
Moderate
Within parent city
12th percentile
#39 of 44 tracts In Broken Arrow
Very Low
Within county
17th percentile
#21 of 25 tracts In Wagoner County
Very Low
Within state
35th percentile
#781 of 1,205 tracts In Oklahoma
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Broken Arrow and the region
Centroid at 36.0039, -95.7298 · click any tract to drill in
Why Timber Creek scores 3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Broken Arrow
2.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
2.5
State political climate
Oklahoma legislature & governorship
1.5
Economic stress
3.8% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
tract rent vs county FMR
5.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Broken Arrow
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Broken Arrow
1.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Broken Arrow
2.0
How Timber Creek compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 13
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
11%Socioeconomic
63%Household composition
28%Racial/ethnic minority
9%Housing & transportation
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
8.9%Housing insecurity
6.2%Utility-shutoff threat
9.8%Food insecurity
7.2%SNAP enrollment
5.7%Transit barriers
6.9%No health insurance
14.8%Frequent mental distress
31.2%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Timber Creek
Pulling hardest the other way is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10. Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 1/10.
24% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. Running cool, state political climate reads 1.5/10.
Food insecurity runs 9.8% against 17.8% nationally. SNAP participation runs 7.2% against 15.2% nationally. Against the Wagoner County average of 3.8, this tract reads safer for landlords by 0.8 points.
That is riskier than roughly 20% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. Only 2% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 2.2/10.
Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured. Poverty sits at 4%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 40145030511
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 40145030511?
Census tract 40145030511 in the Timber Creek neighborhood scores 3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the poverty rate in tract 40145030511?
3.8% of residents in tract 40145030511 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,386.
Q3
How socially vulnerable is tract 40145030511?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 13th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 11th, household 63th, minority 28th, housing 9th.
Q4
Is tract 40145030511 considered part of Timber Creek?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 40145030511 fall within Timber Creek (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q5
What share of households in tract 40145030511 struggle to pay rent?
About 8.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q6
How does tract 40145030511 compare to Broken Arrow overall?
Tract 40145030511 scores 3/10, right in line with the parent city of Broken Arrow at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Broken Arrow eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Broken Arrow
Top eight tracts in Broken Arrow ranked by composite eviction-risk score.