Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #7,456 of 84,120 nationally
Kestrel Park Eviction Risk: Elevated , Ashland
Tract 41029001900 · Jackson County, OR · pop 2,998 · neighborhood within 1.5 mi
For landlords sizing up the Kestrel Park area of Ashland, census tract 41029001900 carries an elevated eviction-risk score of 6.8/10. That is riskier than about 91% of US census tracts.
Rent eats 30% or more of income for 68% of renter households, a severe level, and 39% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $1,319 a month against an average household income of $49,722 a year, roughly 32% of income at the averages. Renters make up 69% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.
Risk score
6.5
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 47%
Stable renters 22%
Owners 31%
Tract context
Occupied units1,114
Renter share69.5%
SVI overall0.66
Poverty rate21.9%
Median income$49,722
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
98
th percentile
Very High
Within state
92
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Ashland and the region
Centroid at 42.1875, -122.6950 · click any tract to drill in
Why Kestrel Park scores 6.5
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Ashland
5.3
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
4.8
State political climate
Oregon legislature & governorship
7.2
Economic stress
21.9% poverty · this tract
5.5
Supply constraint
$1,319 rent vs county FMR
4.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Ashland
8.2
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
7.2
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Ashland
9.1
Housing court bias
Inherited from Ashland
7.4
How Kestrel Park compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 66
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 78%Socioeconomic
- 15%Household composition
- 48%Racial/ethnic minority
- 80%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 234Total filings over 14 yrs
- 2.15%Avg annual filing rate
- 3.7%Peak (2008)
- 15Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 25% over the past 14 months.
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 108Total filings 2020-21
- 1.4Avg monthly (observed)
- 1.1Pre-pandemic baseline
- 1.30×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran above baseline. Eviction Lab tracked South Bend, IN as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Kestrel Park. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Kestrel Park
The heaviest input here is tenant organizing strength at 9.1/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Ashland eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Jackson County average of 6.1 and above the Oregon statewide average of 6.0. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 66th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 234 eviction filings here over 14 tracked years, with about 2.2% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 3.7% of renter households in 2008.
For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.
Frequently asked
About tract 41029001900
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 41029001900?
Census tract 41029001900 in the Kestrel Park neighborhood scores 6.5/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 41029001900?
Median gross rent is $1,319/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 68% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 41029001900?
21.9% of residents in tract 41029001900 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,998.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 41029001900?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 66th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 78th, household 15th, minority 48th, housing 80th.
Q5
Is tract 41029001900 considered part of Kestrel Park?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 41029001900 fall within Kestrel Park (neighborhood centroid within 1.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 41029001900?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 234 eviction filings across 14 validated years in tract 41029001900 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2.15% of renter households, peaking at 3.7% in 2008. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
Did eviction filings in tract 41029001900 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 1.30× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings ran above pre-pandemic norms. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (South Bend eviction risk, IN), 2020-2021.
Q8
How does tract 41029001900 compare to Ashland overall?
Tract 41029001900 scores 6.5/10, right in line with the parent city of Ashland at 6.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Ashland eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Ashland
Top eight tracts in Ashland ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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