Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #12,481 of 84,120 nationally
Kestrel Park Eviction Risk: Elevated , Ashland
Tract 41029002000 · Jackson County, OR · pop 2,150 · neighborhood within 0.9 mi
41029002000 is a census tract in the Kestrel Park area of Ashland, OR. It scores 7.1/10 for landlords. Population here is 2,150. Severe burden reaches 42%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.
Risk score
7.1
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 36%
Stable renters 30%
Owners 34%
Tract context
Occupied units1,138
Renter share66.4%
SVI overall0.35
Poverty rate15.4%
Median income$65,147
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
40
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
73
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
74
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Ashland and the region
Centroid at 42.1953, -122.7081 · click any tract to drill in
Why Kestrel Park scores 7.1
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Ashland
5.3
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
4.8
State political climate
Oregon legislature & governorship
7.2
Economic stress
15.4% poverty · this tract
3.8
Supply constraint
$1,452 rent vs county FMR
5.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Ashland
8.2
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
7.2
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Ashland
9.1
Housing court bias
Inherited from Ashland
7.4
How Kestrel Park compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 35
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 75%Socioeconomic
- 4%Household composition
- 38%Racial/ethnic minority
- 27%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 101Total filings over 14 yrs
- 0.97%Avg annual filing rate
- 1.5%Peak (2005)
- 7Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 40% over the past 14 months.
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 61Total filings 2020-21
- 0.8Avg monthly (observed)
- 0.5Pre-pandemic baseline
- 1.67×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran above baseline. Eviction Lab tracked South Bend, IN as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Kestrel Park. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Kestrel Park
What pushes it up most is tenant-organizing strength at 9.1/10. 66% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby.
On the high side, rent-regulation exposure reads 8.2/10. 55% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, above the Jackson County average of 46.7%.
Sitting well above the midpoint, housing-court posture reads 7.4/10. It sits 1.0 points above the Jackson County average of 6.1. Court records carry 101 eviction filings across 14 observed years.
The worst year on record was 2005, when 1.5% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 1.0% of renter households face a filing.
On the national scale it lands near the 85th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 4.2/10.
Statewide the OR average is 6.1, so this tract runs 1.0 points hotter.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 41029002000
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 41029002000?
Census tract 41029002000 in the Kestrel Park neighborhood scores 7.1/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 41029002000?
Median gross rent is $1,452/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 55% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 41029002000?
15.4% of residents in tract 41029002000 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,150.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 41029002000?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 35th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 75th, household 4th, minority 38th, housing 27th.
Q5
Is tract 41029002000 considered part of Kestrel Park?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 41029002000 fall within Kestrel Park (neighborhood centroid within 0.9 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 41029002000?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 101 eviction filings across 14 validated years in tract 41029002000 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 0.97% of renter households, peaking at 1.5% in 2005. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
Did eviction filings in tract 41029002000 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 1.67× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings ran above pre-pandemic norms. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (South Bend eviction risk, IN), 2020-2021.
Q8
How does tract 41029002000 compare to Ashland overall?
Tract 41029002000 scores 7.1/10, higher than the parent city of Ashland at 6.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Ashland eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Ashland
Top eight tracts in Ashland ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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