Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #11,988 of 84,120 nationally
Kestrel Park Eviction Risk: Elevated , Ashland
Tract 41029001802 · Jackson County, OR · pop 4,042 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi
Census tract 41029001802 covers part of the Kestrel Park area of Ashland, OR, and scores 7.2/10 on landlord eviction risk. 23% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well under the Jackson County average of 46.7%.
Risk score
7.2
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 9%
Stable renters 30%
Owners 61%
Tract context
Occupied units1,914
Renter share39.2%
SVI overall0.40
Poverty rate17.5%
Median income$70,769
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
80
th percentile
High
Within county
82
th percentile
High
Within state
76
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Ashland and the region
Centroid at 42.2070, -122.7079 · click any tract to drill in
Why Kestrel Park scores 7.2
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Ashland
5.3
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
4.8
State political climate
Oregon legislature & governorship
7.2
Economic stress
17.5% poverty · this tract
4.4
Supply constraint
$1,723 rent vs county FMR
6.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from Ashland
8.2
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
7.2
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Ashland
9.1
Housing court bias
Inherited from Ashland
7.4
How Kestrel Park compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 40
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 24%Socioeconomic
- 38%Household composition
- 33%Racial/ethnic minority
- 71%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 10Total filings 2020-21
- 0.1Avg monthly (observed)
- 0.5Pre-pandemic baseline
- 0.27×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran far below baseline (moratorium effect). Eviction Lab tracked South Bend, IN as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Kestrel Park. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Kestrel Park
The dominant input is tenant-organizing strength at 9.1/10. Running hot, rent-regulation exposure reads 8.2/10. The severe-burden share is 17%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
At $1,723 a month, rents run 24% over what the rest of Ashland commands. The voucher gap is 18.3%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. Against the Jackson County average of 6.1, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.1 points.
On the high side, housing-court posture reads 7.4/10. That is riskier than roughly 86% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 4.6/10.
Statewide the OR average is 6.1, so this tract runs 1.1 points hotter. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the least pressured.
Annual rent works out to 29% of average household income of $70,769. 39% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 41029001802
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 41029001802?
Census tract 41029001802 in the Kestrel Park neighborhood scores 7.2/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 41029001802?
Median gross rent is $1,723/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 23% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 41029001802?
17.5% of residents in tract 41029001802 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,042.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 41029001802?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 40th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 24th, household 38th, minority 33th, housing 71th.
Q5
Is tract 41029001802 considered part of Kestrel Park?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 41029001802 fall within Kestrel Park (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
Did eviction filings in tract 41029001802 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 0.27× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings dropped sharply, likely a moratorium effect. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (South Bend eviction risk, IN), 2020-2021.
Q7
How does tract 41029001802 compare to Ashland overall?
Tract 41029001802 scores 7.2/10, higher than the parent city of Ashland at 6.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Ashland eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Ashland
Top eight tracts in Ashland ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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