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Neighborhood · Ashland, OR

Kestrel Park Eviction Risk: Elevated

3 census tracts · pop 9,190 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 6/10 · range 5.7–6.5

Kestrel Park is a white (non-hispanic) neighborhood in Ashland with 3 census tracts and a population of 9,190 residents. The neighborhood's pop-weighted eviction-risk score of 6/10 (Elevated tier) blends state law, county-level filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty. 45% of renters here pay at least 30% of household income on rent, and 30% are severely cost-burdened (≥50% of income). Average gross rent of $1,528/month sits 10% higher than the Ashland citywide average ($1,387).

Risk score
6
Elevated
3 tracts · population-weighted
Kestrel Park vs Ashland How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
% of income on rent
44.9% +22%
Ashland: 36.8%
Average gross rent
$1,528 +10%
Ashland: $1,387
Average HH income
$62,588 -13%
Ashland: $71,782
Poverty rate
18.4% +29%
Ashland: 14.3%
Renter share
55.5% +15%
Ashland: 48.4%
Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Kestrel Park and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 3 tracts span score 5.7–6.5

Why Kestrel Park scores 6

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly
State political climate
legislature & governorship · Range 7.2–7.2 across tracts
7.2
Regional political climate
County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 4.8–4.8 across tracts
4.8
Local political climate
Parent city governance · Range 5.3–5.3 across tracts
5.3
Rent control risk
45% of income on rent · Range 8.2–8.2 across tracts
8.2
Eviction process difficulty
State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 7.2–7.2 across tracts
7.2
Tenant organizing strength
56% renter households · Range 9.1–9.1 across tracts
9.1
Housing court bias
County bench composition · Range 7.4–7.4 across tracts
7.4
Economic stress
18.4% below poverty line · Range 3.8–5.5 across tracts
4.6
Supply constraint
Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 4.1–6.8 across tracts
5.5
Risk score comparison

Kestrel Park vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Kestrel Park score vs. parent city, state, U.S.Kestrel Park: 6.06.0Kestrel ParkNeighborhoodParent city: 6.76.7Parent cityhost cityState: 7.17.1Stateavg in stateU.S.: 4.74.7U.S.national avgU.S. avg = 5.0
Variance across tracts

How uniformly does eviction risk play out in Kestrel Park?

Left: distribution of constituent tract scores. Right: every tract as a heat square. Click any square to drill in.

Score distribution
0246810
Spread of 0.8 points from 5.7 to 6.5. Tracts are relatively uniform, so conditions feel similar throughout the neighborhood.
Tracts as heat grid
Each square = one census tract. Color tracks the same green→red ramp as the chloropleth map above.
Census tracts

3 tracts in Kestrel Park

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract Score Pop % over 30% on rent Average rent
41029001900 6.5 2,998 68% $1,319
41029001802 5.8 4,042 23% $1,723
41029002000 5.7 2,150 55% $1,452
Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 47

Pop-weighted across 3 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 54%ile
Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden
Household characteristics 23%ile
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority 39%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport 64%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history in Kestrel Park

Aggregated across 2 validated constituent tracts. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 335Total filings (sum)
  • 1.66%Avg annual filing rate
  • 3.7%Peak year (2008)
  • 1.60%Latest filed (2016)

Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)

  • 179Total filings 2020-21
  • 0.7Avg monthly observed
  • 0.7Pre-pandemic baseline
  • 0.93×Ratio to baseline

Pandemic filings ran below baseline. Tracked under Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (South Bend, IN).

Frequently asked

About Kestrel Park

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for Kestrel Park?

Kestrel Park scores 6/10 (Elevated tier) across 3 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2

How does Kestrel Park compare to Ashland overall?

Kestrel Park scores 0.7 points lower than Ashland overall (6.7/10). Renters spend 45% of income on rent vs 37% citywide. Average rent: $1,528 vs $1,387.
Q3

What is the average rent in Kestrel Park?

Average gross rent in Kestrel Park is $1,528/month (pop-weighted across 3 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 45% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4

What percentage of Kestrel Park residents are renters?

56% of Kestrel Park households are renter-occupied (vs 48% in Ashland). The neighborhood has 9,190 residents.
Q5

Is Kestrel Park a high social-vulnerability area?

Kestrel Park sits in the 47th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (less vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6

Which tracts in Kestrel Park have the highest eviction risk?

The highest-risk constituent tract in Kestrel Park is census tract 41029001900 (score 6.5/10). Across the 3 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 5.7 to 6.5, a spread of 0.8 points.
Q7

How safe is Kestrel Park for landlords?

Kestrel Park carries a elevated-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (6/10). Pop-weighted across 3 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Ashland as a whole (6.7/10), this neighborhood is lower-risk.
Q8

What is the demographic breakdown of Kestrel Park?

Kestrel Park has 9,346 residents (White (non-Hispanic) Neighborhood). Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (76.6%), Hispanic / Latino (10.6%), Other / Multiracial (9.7%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Kestrel Park

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