Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #7,836 of 84,120 nationally
Holmes-Foster Historic District Eviction Risk: High , State College
Tract 42027012400 · Centre County, PA · pop 5,002 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi
With a score of 8/10, tract 42027012400 in the Holmes-Foster Historic District area of State College, PA reads high for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 5,002 residents. Severe burden reaches 40%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.
Risk score
8
High
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 54%
Stable renters 28%
Owners 18%
Tract context
Occupied units1,776
Renter share81.9%
SVI overall0.30
Poverty rate44.5%
Median income$40,443
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
98
th percentile
Very High
Within state
100
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across State College and the region
Centroid at 40.7856, -77.8646 · click any tract to drill in
Why Holmes-Foster Historic District scores 8
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from State College
5.7
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.2
State political climate
Pennsylvania legislature & governorship
3.4
Economic stress
44.5% poverty · this tract
10.0
Supply constraint
$1,251 rent vs county FMR
3.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from State College
9.3
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.9
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from State College
9.8
Housing court bias
Inherited from State College
9.4
How Holmes-Foster Historic District compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 30
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 48%Socioeconomic
- 1%Household composition
- 27%Racial/ethnic minority
- 86%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Holmes-Foster Historic District. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Holmes-Foster Historic District
66% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, far above the Centre County average of 44.4%. Against the Centre County average of 4.5, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 3.5 points.
What pushes it up most is economic stress at 10/10. The poverty rate is 44%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. On the high side, tenant-organizing strength reads 9.8/10.
Running hot, housing-court posture reads 9.4/10. This is renter territory: 82% of occupied units are tenant-occupied. Set annual rent against average income of $40,443 and the ratio lands at 37%, above the conventional 30% ceiling.
That is riskier than roughly 91% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. Social vulnerability reads 3.7/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Statewide the PA average is 4.6, so this tract runs 3.4 points hotter.
Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured. Average gross rent is $1,251, close to the State College average.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 42027012400
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 42027012400?
Census tract 42027012400 in the Holmes-Foster Historic District neighborhood scores 8/10 (High tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 42027012400?
Median gross rent is $1,251/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 66% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 42027012400?
44.5% of residents in tract 42027012400 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,002.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 42027012400?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 30th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 48th, household 1th, minority 27th, housing 86th.
Q5
Is tract 42027012400 considered part of Holmes-Foster Historic District?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 42027012400 fall within Holmes-Foster Historic District (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How does tract 42027012400 compare to State College overall?
Tract 42027012400 scores 8/10, higher than the parent city of State College at 6.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from State College eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in State College
Top eight tracts in State College ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · PA
Highlands Historic District
8
/ 10 · High
Tract · PA
Highlands Historic District
8
/ 10 · High
Tract · PA
Holmes-Foster Historic District
8
/ 10 · High
Tract · PA
Holmes-Foster Historic District
8
/ 10 · High
Tract · PA
Orchard Park
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · PA
State College South
6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · PA
College Heights
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · PA
College Heights
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
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