Holmes-Foster Historic District Eviction Risk: High , State College

Cost burden runs 63% here against 44.4% across Centre County. It sits 3.5 points above the Centre County average of 4.5. The dominant input is economic stress at 10/10.

The poverty rate is 66%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Sitting well above the midpoint, tenant-organizing strength reads 9.8/10.

84% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. On the high side, housing-court posture reads 9.4/10. Annualized rent equals 37% of average household income of $36,108, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with.

At $1,117 a month, rents run 12% under what the rest of State College commands. That is riskier than roughly 91% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 6.5/10.

Statewide the PA average is 4.6, so this tract runs 3.4 points hotter. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.