Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #24,859 of 84,120 nationally
Turtle Creek Eviction Risk: Moderate , Conway
Tract 45051070300 · Horry County, SC · pop 4,294 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
Census tract 45051070300 covers part of the Turtle Creek area of Conway, SC, and scores 5.4/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 4,294. 36% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Risk score
5.4
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 29%
Stable renters 22%
Owners 49%
Tract context
Occupied units2,000
Renter share50.8%
SVI overall0.81
Poverty rate25.2%
Median income$32,881
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
96
th percentile
Very High
Within state
93
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Conway and the region
Centroid at 33.8535, -79.0654 · click any tract to drill in
Why Turtle Creek scores 5.4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Conway
4.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
3.3
State political climate
South Carolina legislature & governorship
2.1
Economic stress
25.2% poverty · this tract
6.3
Supply constraint
$616 rent vs county FMR
1.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Conway
6.1
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Conway
7.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from Conway
7.1
How Turtle Creek compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 81
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 76%Socioeconomic
- 77%Household composition
- 60%Racial/ethnic minority
- 78%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 829Total filings over 5 yrs
- 23.73%Avg annual filing rate
- 28.7%Peak (2012)
- 164Filings in 2014 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 5 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 19.3%Housing insecurity
- 14.0%Utility-shutoff threat
- 28.0%Food insecurity
- 21.0%SNAP enrollment
- 13.0%Transit barriers
- 15.6%No health insurance
- 20.2%Frequent mental distress
- 39.0%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Turtle Creek
What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 9.5/10. Against Horry County at 44.6%, 57% of renters here are cost-burdened. On the softer side, supply constraint reads 1/10.
At $616 a month, rents run 29% under what the rest of Conway commands. Against the Horry County average of 3.8, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.6 points.
The poverty rate is 25%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Running cool, state political climate reads 2.1/10.
Food insecurity runs 28.0% against 17.8% nationally. The filing record is not thin: 829 evictions over 5 years of observation. Filings peaked in 2012 at 28.7% of renter households.
In a typical year about 23.7% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 70% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 8.3/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Statewide the SC average is 4.0, so this tract runs 1.4 points hotter.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 45051070300
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 45051070300?
Census tract 45051070300 in the Turtle Creek neighborhood scores 5.4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 45051070300?
Median gross rent is $616/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 57% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 45051070300?
25.2% of residents in tract 45051070300 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,294.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 45051070300?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 81th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 76th, household 77th, minority 60th, housing 78th.
Q5
Is tract 45051070300 considered part of Turtle Creek?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 45051070300 fall within Turtle Creek (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 45051070300?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 829 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 45051070300 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 23.73% of renter households, peaking at 28.7% in 2012. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 45051070300 struggle to pay rent?
About 19.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 14.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 45051070300 compare to Conway overall?
Tract 45051070300 scores 5.4/10, higher than the parent city of Conway at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Conway eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Conway
Top eight tracts in Conway ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · SC
Bells Bay
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · SC
Harvest Ridge
5
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · SC
Pinecrest
4.9
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · SC
45051070702
4.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · SC
Country Club Forest
4.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · SC
Aviary at Wild Wing
3.8
/ 10 · Low
Tract · SC
Kingston Oaks
3.6
/ 10 · Low
Tract · SC
45051070102
3
/ 10 · Low
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