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Neighborhood · Ranked #51,553 of 84,120 nationally

Surprise Original Townsite Eviction Risk: Lower

Tract 04013060901 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 4,810 · neighborhood within 0.9 mi

Census tract 04013060901 sits in the Surprise Original Townsite neighborhood of Surprise eviction risk, Arizona eviction laws, and carries an eviction-risk score of 5.9/10. That is riskier than about 73% of US census tracts.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 72% of renter households, a severe level, and 62% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $1,783 a month against an average household income of $83,141 a year, roughly 26% of income at the averages. Renters make up 25% of occupied homes.

Risk score
3.4
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 18% Stable renters 7% Owners 75%
Tract context
Occupied units1,543
Renter share24.6%
SVI overall0.78
Poverty rate10.5%
Median income$83,141

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
67 th percentile
Rank, 67th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 4 tracts In Surprise Original Townsite
Elevated
Within parent city
25 th percentile
Rank, 25th percentileLowHigh
#7 of 9 tracts In Surprise
Low
Within county
58 th percentile
Rank, 58th percentileLowHigh
#425 of 1,009 tracts In Maricopa
Elevated
Within state
47 th percentile
Rank, 47th percentileLowHigh
#934 of 1,765 tracts In Arizona
Moderate
Geographic context

Risk heat across Surprise and the region

Centroid at 33.6179, -112.3354 · click any tract to drill in

Why Surprise Original Townsite scores 3.4

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Surprise
5.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
10.5% poverty · this tract
2.6
Supply constraint
$1,783 rent vs county FMR
4.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Surprise
5.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.2
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Surprise
6.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from Surprise
6.0

How Surprise Original Townsite compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Surprise Original Townsite risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 3.43.4This tracttract 060901Surprise: 2.42.4Surpriseparent cityCounty: 3.33.3Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.63.6Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 78

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 244Total filings over 5 yrs
  • 98.78%Avg annual filing rate
  • 137.0%Peak (2003)
  • 59Filings in 2005 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2001 to 2005
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 040130609012001: 54 filings (121.27/100 renter HHs)2002: 36 filings (80.85/100 renter HHs)2003: 61 filings (136.99/100 renter HHs)2004: 34 filings (76.36/100 renter HHs)2005: 59 filings (78.41/100 renter HHs)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 5 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Surprise Original Townsite. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Surprise Original Townsite

The heaviest input here is tenant organizing strength at 6.6/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Surprise eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Maricopa County average of 5.1 and above the Arizona statewide average of 4.9. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 244 eviction filings here over 5 tracked years, with about 98.8% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 137.0% of renter households in 2003.

In CDC survey modeling, about 16.9% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 9.1% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 04013060901

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013060901?

Census tract 04013060901 in the Surprise Original Townsite neighborhood scores 3.4/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 04013060901?

Median gross rent is $1,783/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 72% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 04013060901?

10.5% of residents in tract 04013060901 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,810.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 04013060901?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 78th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 79th, household 91th, minority 80th, housing 39th.
Q5

Is tract 04013060901 considered part of Surprise Original Townsite?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04013060901 fall within Surprise Original Townsite (neighborhood centroid within 0.9 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04013060901?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 244 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 04013060901 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 98.78% of renter households, peaking at 137.0% in 2003. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 04013060901 struggle to pay rent?

About 16.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 9.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 04013060901 compare to Surprise overall?

Tract 04013060901 scores 3.4/10, higher than the parent city of Surprise at 2.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Surprise eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Surprise

Top eight tracts in Surprise ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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