Neighborhood · Ranked #37,882 of 84,120 nationally

Carefree Manor Eviction Risk: Moderate , Apache Junction

Tract 04021000321 · Pinal, AZ · pop 3,174 · neighborhood within 0.1 mi

04021000321 is a census tract in the Carefree Manor area of Apache Junction, AZ. It scores 4.7/10 for landlords. 49% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.

Risk score

4.7

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 9% Stable renters 5% Owners 86%

Tract context

Occupied units1,459

Renter share14.7%

SVI overall0.72

Poverty rate17.3%

Median income$61,174

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Apache Junction and the region

Centroid at 33.4296, -111.5720 · click any tract to drill in

Why Carefree Manor scores 4.7

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Apache Junction

4.7

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

4.1

State political climate

Arizona legislature & governorship

2.2

Economic stress

17.3% poverty · this tract

4.3

Supply constraint

$786 rent vs county FMR

1.0

Rent control risk

Inherited from Apache Junction

7.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

1.9

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Apache Junction

5.1

Housing court bias

Inherited from Apache Junction

6.5

How Carefree Manor compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 72

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

89%Socioeconomic
52%Household composition
27%Racial/ethnic minority
57%Housing & transportation

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

11.1%Housing insecurity
7.7%Utility-shutoff threat
16.9%Food insecurity
11.9%SNAP enrollment
8.4%Transit barriers
12.4%No health insurance
16.6%Frequent mental distress
39.1%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Carefree Manor

63% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well clear of the Pinal County average of 37.6%. The clearest offset is supply constraint at 1/10. At $786 a month, rents run 31% under what the rest of Apache Junction commands.

On the softer side, eviction-process difficulty reads 1.9/10. Well under the midpoint, state political climate reads 2.2/10.

It sits 0.9 points above the Pinal County average of 3.8. On the national scale it lands near the 55th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. Only 15% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices.

CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 7.5/10. Rent consumes only 15% of average household income of $61,174, an unusually wide affordability cushion. Statewide the AZ average is 3.8, so this tract runs 0.9 points hotter.

Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the most pressured.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 04021000321

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04021000321?

Census tract 04021000321 in the Carefree Manor neighborhood scores 4.7/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 04021000321?

Median gross rent is $786/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 63% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 04021000321?

17.3% of residents in tract 04021000321 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,174.

How socially vulnerable is tract 04021000321?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 72th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 89th, household 52th, minority 27th, housing 57th.

Is tract 04021000321 considered part of Carefree Manor?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04021000321 fall within Carefree Manor (neighborhood centroid within 0.1 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 04021000321 struggle to pay rent?

About 11.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 04021000321 compare to Apache Junction overall?

Tract 04021000321 scores 4.7/10, higher than the parent city of Apache Junction at 3.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Apache Junction eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Apache Junction

Top eight tracts in Apache Junction ranked by composite eviction-risk score.