Bakersfield Eviction Risk: Elevated

Food insecurity runs 56.5% against 17.8% nationally. The poverty rate is 58%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Annualized rent equals 47% of average household income of $27,745, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with.

30% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 29.2% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.

Average gross rent is $1,085, 26% below the Bakersfield average. It sits 1.1 points above the Kern County average of 6.4. On the softer side, supply constraint reads 2.9/10.

That is riskier than roughly 88% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 9.8/10. Of its three components the household composition measure is the most pressured.

48% of renter households spend at least 30% of income on rent. 57% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.