Bakersfield Eviction Risk: Elevated

The dominant input is economic stress at 10/10. SNAP participation runs 70.4% against 15.2% nationally.

Housing insecurity runs 46.4% against 14.2% nationally. Severe burden reaches 33%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.

The poverty rate is 61%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Annualized rent equals 40% of average household income of $29,107, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with. 85% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby.

Average gross rent is $980, 33% below the Bakersfield average. On the softer side, supply constraint reads 2.1/10. It sits 1.1 points above the Kern County average of 6.4.

Nationally it ranks #10,320 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. Social vulnerability reads 10/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.

Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.