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Neighborhood · Ranked #1,455 of 84,120 nationally

Little Baghdad Eviction Risk: High , El Cajon

Tract 06073015407 · San Diego, CA · pop 3,869 · neighborhood within 0.9 mi

Landlord eviction risk in census tract 06073015407 (the Little Baghdad neighborhood of El Cajon, California) comes in at 6.6/10, the Elevated tier. It lands near the 89th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 76% of renter households, a severe level, and 54% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $1,895 a month while the average household earns $46,267 a year, roughly 49% of income at the averages. Renters make up 81% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score
8.3
High
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 61% Stable renters 20% Owners 19%
Tract context
Occupied units1,226
Renter share80.8%
SVI overall0.93
Poverty rate30.6%
Median income$46,267

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
83 th percentile
Rank, 83rd percentileLowHigh
#2 of 7 tracts In Little Baghdad
High
Within parent city
86 th percentile
Rank, 86th percentileLowHigh
#4 of 22 tracts In El Cajon
High
Within county
99 th percentile
Rank, 99th percentileLowHigh
#10 of 736 tracts In San Diego
Very High
Within state
93 th percentile
Rank, 93rd percentileLowHigh
#603 of 9,109 tracts In California
Very High
Geographic context

Risk heat across El Cajon and the region

Centroid at 32.7840, -116.9482 · click any tract to drill in

Why Little Baghdad scores 8.3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from El Cajon
6.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.1
State political climate
California legislature & governorship
6.8
Economic stress
30.6% poverty · this tract
7.6
Supply constraint
$1,895 rent vs county FMR
1.6
Rent control risk
Inherited from El Cajon
9.1
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
6.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from El Cajon
9.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from El Cajon
8.5

How Little Baghdad compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Little Baghdad risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 8.38.3This tracttract 015407El Cajon: 8.28.2El Cajonparent cityCounty: 5.25.2Countyavg tract in countyState: 5.65.6Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 93

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Little Baghdad. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Little Baghdad

The heaviest input here is tenant organizing strength at 9.6/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from El Cajon, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the San Diego County average of 5.8 and above the California statewide average of 6.1. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 21.4% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 12.9% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 93rd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 06073015407

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06073015407?

Census tract 06073015407 in the Little Baghdad neighborhood scores 8.3/10 (High tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 06073015407?

Median gross rent is $1,895/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 76% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 06073015407?

30.6% of residents in tract 06073015407 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,869.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 06073015407?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 93th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 96th, household 98th, minority 47th, housing 63th.
Q5

Is tract 06073015407 considered part of Little Baghdad?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 06073015407 fall within Little Baghdad (neighborhood centroid within 0.9 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 06073015407 struggle to pay rent?

About 21.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 12.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 06073015407 compare to El Cajon overall?

Tract 06073015407 scores 8.3/10, right in line with the parent city of El Cajon at 8.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from El Cajon; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in El Cajon

Top eight tracts in El Cajon ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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