Within neighborhood
83
th percentile
High
Neighborhood · Ranked #3,082 of 84,120 nationally
Little Baghdad Eviction Risk: High , El Cajon
Tract 06073015407 · San Diego, CA · pop 3,869 · neighborhood within 0.9 mi
With a score of 9.3/10, tract 06073015407 in the Little Baghdad area of El Cajon, CA reads high for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 3,869. 54% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Risk score
9.3
High
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 61%
Stable renters 20%
Owners 19%
Tract context
Occupied units1,226
Renter share80.8%
SVI overall0.93
Poverty rate30.6%
Median income$46,267
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
71
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
88
th percentile
High
Within state
85
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across El Cajon and the region
Centroid at 32.7840, -116.9482 · click any tract to drill in
Why Little Baghdad scores 9.3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from El Cajon
6.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.1
State political climate
California legislature & governorship
6.8
Economic stress
30.6% poverty · this tract
7.6
Supply constraint
$1,895 rent vs county FMR
1.6
Rent control risk
Inherited from El Cajon
9.1
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
6.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from El Cajon
9.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from El Cajon
8.5
How Little Baghdad compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 93
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 96%Socioeconomic
- 98%Household composition
- 47%Racial/ethnic minority
- 63%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Little Baghdad. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 21.4%Housing insecurity
- 12.9%Utility-shutoff threat
- 28.2%Food insecurity
- 34.2%SNAP enrollment
- 15.2%Transit barriers
- 11.4%No health insurance
- 22.9%Frequent mental distress
- 39.1%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Little Baghdad
Cost burden runs 76% here against 52.5% across San Diego County. Set annual rent against average income of $46,267 and the ratio lands at 49%, above the conventional 30% ceiling.
The dominant input is tenant-organizing strength at 9.6/10. On the high side, rent-regulation exposure reads 9.1/10. SNAP participation runs 34.2% against 15.2% nationally.
81% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. The poverty rate is 31%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest.
Against the San Diego County average of 7.6, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.7 points. Running hot, housing-court posture reads 8.5/10.
Housing insecurity runs 21.4% against 14.2% nationally. That is riskier than roughly 96% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 9.4/10.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 06073015407
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06073015407?
Census tract 06073015407 in the Little Baghdad neighborhood scores 9.3/10 (High tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 06073015407?
Median gross rent is $1,895/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 76% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 06073015407?
30.6% of residents in tract 06073015407 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,869.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 06073015407?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 93th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 96th, household 98th, minority 47th, housing 63th.
Q5
Is tract 06073015407 considered part of Little Baghdad?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 06073015407 fall within Little Baghdad (neighborhood centroid within 0.9 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 06073015407 struggle to pay rent?
About 21.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 12.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 06073015407 compare to El Cajon overall?
Tract 06073015407 scores 9.3/10, higher than the parent city of El Cajon at 7.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from El Cajon; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in El Cajon
Top eight tracts in El Cajon ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · CA
Hillsdale
9.3
/ 10 · Very High
Tract · CA
Little Baghdad
9.3
/ 10 · Very High
Tract · CA
Little Baghdad
9.3
/ 10 · Very High
Tract · CA
Little Baghdad
9.3
/ 10 · Very High
Tract · CA
Little Baghdad
9.3
/ 10 · Very High
Tract · CA
Cajon Heights
9.3
/ 10 · Very High
Tract · CA
Cajon Heights
9.3
/ 10 · Very High
Tract · CA
Little Baghdad
9.3
/ 10 · Very High
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