Neighborhood · Ranked #2,663 of 84,120 nationally

Little Baghdad Eviction Risk: Elevated , El Cajon

Tract 06073015301 · San Diego, CA · pop 3,767 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi

Landlord eviction risk in census tract 06073015301 (the Little Baghdad area of El Cajon, California) comes in at 6.5/10, the Elevated tier. It lands near the 87th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.

87% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 67% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $1,935 a month against an average household income of $61,282 a year, roughly 38% of income at the averages. Renters make up 56% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score

7.7

Elevated

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 49% Stable renters 8% Owners 43%

Tract context

Occupied units1,126

Renter share56.2%

SVI overall0.65

Poverty rate25.4%

Median income$61,282

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across El Cajon and the region

Centroid at 32.7840, -116.9580 · click any tract to drill in

Why Little Baghdad scores 7.7

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from El Cajon

6.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

6.1

State political climate

California legislature & governorship

6.8

Economic stress

25.4% poverty · this tract

6.3

Supply constraint

$1,935 rent vs county FMR

1.7

Rent control risk

Inherited from El Cajon

9.1

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

6.4

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from El Cajon

9.6

Housing court bias

Inherited from El Cajon

8.5

How Little Baghdad compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 65

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

78%Socioeconomic
22%Household composition
46%Racial/ethnic minority
68%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Little Baghdad. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

20.2%Housing insecurity
12.0%Utility-shutoff threat
26.0%Food insecurity
30.2%SNAP enrollment
13.8%Transit barriers
10.9%No health insurance
20.9%Frequent mental distress
35.5%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Little Baghdad

The heaviest input here is tenant organizing strength at 9.6/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from El Cajon, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the San Diego County average of 5.8 and above the California statewide average of 6.1. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 65th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.

In CDC survey modeling, about 20.2% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 12.0% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 06073015301

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06073015301?

Census tract 06073015301 in the Little Baghdad neighborhood scores 7.7/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 06073015301?

Median gross rent is $1,935/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 87% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 06073015301?

25.4% of residents in tract 06073015301 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,767.

How socially vulnerable is tract 06073015301?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 65th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 78th, household 22th, minority 46th, housing 68th.

Is tract 06073015301 considered part of Little Baghdad?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 06073015301 fall within Little Baghdad (neighborhood centroid within 0.8 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 06073015301 struggle to pay rent?

About 20.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 12.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 06073015301 compare to El Cajon overall?

Tract 06073015301 scores 7.7/10, lower than the parent city of El Cajon at 8.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from El Cajon; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in El Cajon

Top eight tracts in El Cajon ranked by composite eviction-risk score.