Skip to content
Neighborhood · Ranked #3,082 of 84,120 nationally

Little Baghdad Eviction Risk: High , El Cajon

Tract 06073015706 · San Diego, CA · pop 2,689 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi

Tract 06073015706 sits in the Little Baghdad area of El Cajon, CA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 9.3/10. It is home to 2,689 residents. Severe burden reaches 43%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.

Risk score
9.3
High
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 55% Stable renters 25% Owners 20%
Tract context
Occupied units819
Renter share80.7%
SVI overall1.00
Poverty rate29.7%
Median income$33,640

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#4 of 7 tracts In Little Baghdad
Moderate
Within parent city
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 22 tracts In El Cajon
Very High
Within county
87 th percentile
Rank, 87th percentileLowHigh
#97 of 736 tracts In San Diego
High
Within state
85 th percentile
Rank, 85th percentileLowHigh
#1,347 of 9,109 tracts In California
High
Geographic context

Risk heat across El Cajon and the region

Centroid at 32.7913, -116.9464 · click any tract to drill in

Why Little Baghdad scores 9.3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from El Cajon
6.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.1
State political climate
California legislature & governorship
6.8
Economic stress
29.7% poverty · this tract
7.4
Supply constraint
$1,724 rent vs county FMR
1.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from El Cajon
9.1
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
6.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from El Cajon
9.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from El Cajon
8.5

How Little Baghdad compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Little Baghdad risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 9.39.3This tracttract 015706El Cajon: 7.97.9El Cajonparent cityCounty: 7.67.6Countyavg tract in countyState: 7.57.5Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 100

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Little Baghdad. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Little Baghdad

Annualized rent equals 61% of average household income of $33,640, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with. SNAP participation runs 42.1% against 15.2% nationally.

Cost burden runs 69% here against 52.5% across San Diego County. What pushes it up most is tenant-organizing strength at 9.6/10. Sitting well above the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 9.1/10.

81% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. Running cool, supply constraint reads 1/10.

The poverty rate is 30%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. It sits 1.7 points above the San Diego County average of 7.6.

Inability to pay a utility bill runs 15.1% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. On the national scale it lands near the 96th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.

Social vulnerability reads 10/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Statewide the CA average is 7.5, so this tract runs 1.8 points hotter.

Of its three components the household composition measure is the most pressured. Average gross rent is $1,724, close to the El Cajon average.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 06073015706

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06073015706?

Census tract 06073015706 in the Little Baghdad neighborhood scores 9.3/10 (High tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 06073015706?

Median gross rent is $1,724/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 69% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 06073015706?

29.7% of residents in tract 06073015706 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,689.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 06073015706?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 100th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 91th, household 100th, minority 60th, housing 98th.
Q5

Is tract 06073015706 considered part of Little Baghdad?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 06073015706 fall within Little Baghdad (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 06073015706 struggle to pay rent?

About 25.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 15.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 06073015706 compare to El Cajon overall?

Tract 06073015706 scores 9.3/10, higher than the parent city of El Cajon at 7.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from El Cajon; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in El Cajon

Top eight tracts in El Cajon ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

Related