Census Tract · Ranked #7,836 of 84,120 nationally

Ceres Eviction Risk: High

Tract 06099002604 · Stanislaus, CA · pop 5,237 · 97% of tract blocks fall in Ceres

Tract 06099002604 sits in Ceres, CA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 8/10. Population here is 5,237. The severe-burden share is 28%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

Risk score

High

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 31% Stable renters 29% Owners 40%

Tract context

Occupied units1,524

Renter share59.5%

SVI overall0.99

Poverty rate26.6%

Median income$67,188

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Ceres and the region

Centroid at 37.6036, -120.9641 · click any tract to drill in

Why Ceres scores 8

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Ceres

5.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.0

State political climate

California legislature & governorship

6.8

Economic stress

26.6% poverty · this tract

6.6

Supply constraint

$1,340 rent vs county FMR

3.6

Rent control risk

Inherited from Ceres

6.4

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

6.4

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Ceres

7.6

Housing court bias

Inherited from Ceres

6.5

How Ceres compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 99

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

92%Socioeconomic
88%Household composition
88%Racial/ethnic minority
99%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

29.1%Housing insecurity
15.9%Utility-shutoff threat
37.9%Food insecurity
37.8%SNAP enrollment
19.0%Transit barriers
23.6%No health insurance
22.2%Frequent mental distress
44.4%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Ceres

Housing insecurity runs 29.1% against 14.2% nationally. The poverty rate is 27%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. It sits 1.5 points above the Stanislaus County average of 6.5.

What pushes it up most is tenant-organizing strength at 7.6/10. At $1,340 a month, rents run 18% under what the rest of Ceres commands. Cost burden runs 52% here against 47.5% across Stanislaus County.

Inability to pay a utility bill runs 15.9% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. That is riskier than roughly 91% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.

Social vulnerability reads 9.9/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured. Annual rent works out to 24% of average household income of $67,188.

60% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 06099002604

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06099002604?

Census tract 06099002604 in Ceres scores 8/10 (High tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 06099002604?

Median gross rent is $1,340/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 52% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 06099002604?

26.6% of residents in tract 06099002604 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,237.

How socially vulnerable is tract 06099002604?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 99th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 92th, household 88th, minority 88th, housing 99th.

What share of households in tract 06099002604 struggle to pay rent?

About 29.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 15.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 06099002604 compare to Ceres overall?

Tract 06099002604 scores 8/10, higher than the parent city of Ceres at 6.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Ceres; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Ceres

Top eight tracts in Ceres ranked by composite eviction-risk score.