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Neighborhood · Ranked #12,919 of 84,120 nationally

San Rafael Historic District Eviction Risk: Elevated , Denver

Tract 08031002402 · Denver County, CO · pop 1,944 · neighborhood within 0.1 mi

Census tract 08031002402 covers part of the San Rafael Historic District area of Denver, CO, and scores 7/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 1,944. What pushes it up most is local political climate at 9/10.

Risk score
7
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 24% Stable renters 34% Owners 42%
Tract context
Occupied units843
Renter share58.0%
SVI overall0.63
Poverty rate11.4%
Median income$84,688

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In San Rafael Historic District
Moderate
Within parent city
59 th percentile
Rank, 59th percentileLowHigh
#73 of 178 tracts In Denver
Elevated
Within county
61 th percentile
Rank, 61st percentileLowHigh
#71 of 178 tracts In Denver County
Elevated
Within state
91 th percentile
Rank, 91st percentileLowHigh
#138 of 1,447 tracts In Colorado
Very High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Denver and the region

Centroid at 39.7501, -104.9756 · click any tract to drill in

Why San Rafael Historic District scores 7

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Denver
9.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.1
State political climate
Colorado legislature & governorship
4.7
Economic stress
11.4% poverty · this tract
2.9
Supply constraint
$1,572 rent vs county FMR
2.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Denver
7.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
8.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Denver
8.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Denver
7.5

How San Rafael Historic District compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
San Rafael Historic District risk score vs. parent city / county / state7.0This tracttract 0024026.8Denverparent city6.7Countyavg tract in county4.9Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 63

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 141Total filings over 8 yrs
  • 3.74%Avg annual filing rate
  • 6.7%Peak (2009)
  • 11Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2009 to 2016
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 08031002402
Filings dropped 58% over the past 8 months.
Analysis

What drives eviction risk in San Rafael Historic District

Running hot, eviction-process difficulty reads 8.5/10. Sitting well above the midpoint, regional political climate reads 8.1/10. The severe-burden share is 14%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

41% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, lower than the Denver County average of 45.4%. Court records carry 141 eviction filings across 8 observed years. At $1,572 a month, rents run 14% under what the rest of Denver commands.

Filings peaked in 2009 at 6.7% of renter households. This ground was mapped D ("Hazardous") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Denver. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above.

In a typical year about 3.7% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 85% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 6.7/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Statewide the CO average is 4.9, so this tract runs 2.1 points hotter. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 08031002402

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 08031002402?

Census tract 08031002402 in the San Rafael Historic District neighborhood scores 7/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 08031002402?

Median gross rent is $1,572/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 41% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 08031002402?

11.4% of residents in tract 08031002402 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,944.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 08031002402?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 63th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 38th, household 64th, minority 63th, housing 83th.
Q5

Is tract 08031002402 considered part of San Rafael Historic District?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 08031002402 fall within San Rafael Historic District (neighborhood centroid within 0.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 08031002402?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 141 eviction filings across 8 validated years in tract 08031002402 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 3.74% of renter households, peaking at 6.7% in 2009. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

How does tract 08031002402 compare to Denver overall?

Tract 08031002402 scores 7/10, right in line with the parent city of Denver at 6.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Denver eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q8

Was tract 08031002402 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 99% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Denver

Top eight tracts in Denver ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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