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Neighborhood · Ranked #26,446 of 84,120 nationally

San Rafael Historic District Eviction Risk: Moderate , Denver

Tract 08031002402 · Denver County, CO · pop 1,944 · neighborhood within 0.1 mi

For landlords sizing up San Rafael Historic District in Denver, census tract 08031002402 carries an elevated eviction-risk score of 6.6/10. On the national scale it ranks #9,202 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

About 41% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 14% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,572 monthly, set against $84,688 in average yearly household income, roughly 22% of income at the averages. About 58% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score
4.9
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 24% Stable renters 34% Owners 42%
Tract context
Occupied units843
Renter share58.0%
SVI overall0.63
Poverty rate11.4%
Median income$84,688

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In San Rafael Historic District
Moderate
Within parent city
62 th percentile
Rank, 62nd percentileLowHigh
#68 of 178 tracts In Denver
Elevated
Within county
63 th percentile
Rank, 63rd percentileLowHigh
#67 of 178 tracts In Denver County
Elevated
Within state
86 th percentile
Rank, 86th percentileLowHigh
#209 of 1,447 tracts In Colorado
High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Denver and the region

Centroid at 39.7501, -104.9756 · click any tract to drill in

Why San Rafael Historic District scores 4.9

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Denver
9.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.1
State political climate
Colorado legislature & governorship
4.7
Economic stress
11.4% poverty · this tract
2.9
Supply constraint
$1,572 rent vs county FMR
2.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Denver
7.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
8.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Denver
8.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Denver
7.5

How San Rafael Historic District compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
San Rafael Historic District risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 4.94.9This tracttract 002402Denver: 5.75.7Denverparent cityCounty: 4.84.8Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.23.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 63

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 141Total filings over 8 yrs
  • 3.74%Avg annual filing rate
  • 6.7%Peak (2009)
  • 11Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2009 to 2016
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 080310024022009: 26 filings (6.74/100 renter HHs)2010: 24 filings (4.93/100 renter HHs)2011: 19 filings (3.73/100 renter HHs)2012: 18 filings (3.53/100 renter HHs)2013: 17 filings (3.33/100 renter HHs)2014: 13 filings (2.55/100 renter HHs)2015: 13 filings (2.55/100 renter HHs)2016: 11 filings (2.52/100 renter HHs)
Filings dropped 58% over the past 8 months.
Analysis

What drives eviction risk in San Rafael Historic District

The score leans hardest on eviction process difficulty at 8.5/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Denver eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Denver County average of 6.7 and above the Colorado statewide average of 5.7. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.

The tract is White and Hispanic or Latino and ranks around the 63rd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 141 eviction filings here over 8 tracked years, with about 3.7% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 6.7% of renter households in 2009.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 08031002402

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 08031002402?

Census tract 08031002402 in the San Rafael Historic District neighborhood scores 4.9/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 08031002402?

Median gross rent is $1,572/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 41% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 08031002402?

11.4% of residents in tract 08031002402 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,944.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 08031002402?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 63th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 38th, household 64th, minority 63th, housing 83th.
Q5

Is tract 08031002402 considered part of San Rafael Historic District?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 08031002402 fall within San Rafael Historic District (neighborhood centroid within 0.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 08031002402?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 141 eviction filings across 8 validated years in tract 08031002402 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 3.74% of renter households, peaking at 6.7% in 2009. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

How does tract 08031002402 compare to Denver overall?

Tract 08031002402 scores 4.9/10, lower than the parent city of Denver at 5.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Denver eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q8

Was tract 08031002402 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 99% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Denver

Top eight tracts in Denver ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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