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Neighborhood · Ranked #16,032 of 84,120 nationally

Lower Mānoa Eviction Risk: Elevated , Urban Honolulu

Tract 15003002802 · Honolulu County, HI · pop 2,458 · neighborhood within 1.3 mi

With a score of 6.4/10, tract 15003002802 in the Lower Mānoa area of Urban Honolulu, HI reads elevated for landlord eviction risk. The dominant input is tenant-organizing strength at 9.2/10.

Risk score
6.4
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 13% Stable renters 21% Owners 66%
Tract context
Occupied units949
Renter share34.1%
SVI overall0.14
Poverty rate5.5%
Median income$98,393

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
25 th percentile
Rank, 25th percentileLowHigh
#10 of 13 tracts In Lower Mānoa
Low
Within parent city
33 th percentile
Rank, 33rd percentileLowHigh
#89 of 132 tracts In Urban Honolulu
Low
Within county
60 th percentile
Rank, 60th percentileLowHigh
#132 of 329 tracts In Honolulu County
Elevated
Within state
64 th percentile
Rank, 64th percentileLowHigh
#156 of 436 tracts In Hawaii
Elevated
Geographic context

Risk heat across Urban Honolulu and the region

Centroid at 21.3022, -157.8022 · click any tract to drill in

Why Lower Mānoa scores 6.4

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Urban Honolulu
6.7
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.3
State political climate
Hawaii legislature & governorship
5.5
Economic stress
5.5% poverty · this tract
1.4
Supply constraint
$2,214 rent vs county FMR
3.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Urban Honolulu
7.3
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Urban Honolulu
9.2
Housing court bias
Inherited from Urban Honolulu
6.6

How Lower Mānoa compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Lower Mānoa risk score vs. parent city / county / state6.4This tracttract 0028026.6Urban Honoluluparent city6.0Countyavg tract in county5.9Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 14

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Lower Mānoa. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Lower Mānoa

Against Honolulu County at 50.9%, 39% of renters here are cost-burdened. Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 1.4/10.

The severe-burden share is 18%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. On the softer side, court filing pressure reads 1.7/10.

Average gross rent is $2,214, 21% above the Urban Honolulu average. SNAP participation runs 6.8% against 15.2% nationally.

Inability to pay a utility bill runs 3.8% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. That is riskier than roughly 81% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 2.2/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the least pressured. Poverty sits at 6%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap. It tracks the Honolulu County average of 6.0 closely.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 15003002802

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 15003002802?

Census tract 15003002802 in the Lower Mānoa neighborhood scores 6.4/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 15003002802?

Median gross rent is $2,214/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 39% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 15003002802?

5.5% of residents in tract 15003002802 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,458.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 15003002802?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 14th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 12th, household 17th, minority 78th, housing 16th.
Q5

Is tract 15003002802 considered part of Lower Mānoa?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 15003002802 fall within Lower Mānoa (neighborhood centroid within 1.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 15003002802 struggle to pay rent?

About 7.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 15003002802 compare to Urban Honolulu overall?

Tract 15003002802 scores 6.4/10, right in line with the parent city of Urban Honolulu at 6.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Urban Honolulu eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Urban Honolulu

Top eight tracts in Urban Honolulu ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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