Within neighborhood
33
th percentile
Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #15,451 of 84,120 nationally
Lower Mānoa Eviction Risk: Elevated , Urban Honolulu
Tract 15003003409 · Honolulu County, HI · pop 1,882 · neighborhood within 1.2 mi
15003003409 is a census tract in the Lower Mānoa area of Urban Honolulu, HI. It scores 6.5/10 for landlords. It is home to 1,882 residents. What pushes it up most is tenant-organizing strength at 9.2/10.
Risk score
6.5
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 28%
Stable renters 34%
Owners 38%
Tract context
Occupied units979
Renter share61.7%
SVI overall0.38
Poverty rate3.2%
Median income$85,673
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
35
th percentile
Low
Within county
61
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
65
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Urban Honolulu and the region
Centroid at 21.3045, -157.8401 · click any tract to drill in
Why Lower Mānoa scores 6.5
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Urban Honolulu
6.7
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.3
State political climate
Hawaii legislature & governorship
5.5
Economic stress
3.2% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$1,781 rent vs county FMR
1.6
Rent control risk
Inherited from Urban Honolulu
7.3
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Urban Honolulu
9.2
Housing court bias
Inherited from Urban Honolulu
6.6
How Lower Mānoa compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 38
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 38%Socioeconomic
- 7%Household composition
- 85%Racial/ethnic minority
- 59%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Lower Mānoa. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 10.2%Housing insecurity
- 4.9%Utility-shutoff threat
- 15.6%Food insecurity
- 9.2%SNAP enrollment
- 6.5%Transit barriers
- 5.0%No health insurance
- 14.0%Frequent mental distress
- 24.6%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Lower Mānoa
Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 1/10. On the softer side, supply constraint reads 1.6/10.
Against Honolulu County at 50.9%, 45% of renters here are cost-burdened. 11% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
That is riskier than roughly 82% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. Social vulnerability reads 4.4/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.
Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured. Poverty sits at 3%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap. It tracks the Honolulu County average of 6.0 closely.
Average gross rent is $1,781, close to the Urban Honolulu average. Annual rent works out to 25% of average household income of $85,673. 62% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 15003003409
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 15003003409?
Census tract 15003003409 in the Lower Mānoa neighborhood scores 6.5/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 15003003409?
Median gross rent is $1,781/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 45% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 15003003409?
3.2% of residents in tract 15003003409 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,882.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 15003003409?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 38th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 38th, household 7th, minority 85th, housing 59th.
Q5
Is tract 15003003409 considered part of Lower Mānoa?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 15003003409 fall within Lower Mānoa (neighborhood centroid within 1.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 15003003409 struggle to pay rent?
About 10.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 15003003409 compare to Urban Honolulu overall?
Tract 15003003409 scores 6.5/10, right in line with the parent city of Urban Honolulu at 6.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Urban Honolulu eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Urban Honolulu
Top eight tracts in Urban Honolulu ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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