Neighborhood · Ranked #24,859 of 84,120 nationally

Central Park Eviction Risk: Moderate , Rockford

Tract 17201003602 · Winnebago County, IL · pop 4,037 · neighborhood within 1.4 mi

Census tract 17201003602 covers part of the Central Park area of Rockford, IL, and scores 5.4/10 on landlord eviction risk. Severe burden reaches 42%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.

Risk score

5.4

Moderate

Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 36% Stable renters 19% Owners 45%

Tract context

Occupied units1,807

Renter share55.1%

SVI overall0.95

Poverty rate28.6%

Median income$40,885

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Rockford and the region

Centroid at 42.3128, -89.1064 · click any tract to drill in

Why Central Park scores 5.4

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Rockford

4.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.1

State political climate

Illinois legislature & governorship

5.2

Economic stress

28.6% poverty · this tract

7.2

Supply constraint

$859 rent vs county FMR

2.3

Rent control risk

Inherited from Rockford

2.0

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

3.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Rockford

3.0

Housing court bias

Inherited from Rockford

3.5

How Central Park compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 95

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

87%Socioeconomic
98%Household composition
58%Racial/ethnic minority
88%Housing & transportation

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

0%Grade A
0%Grade B
1%Grade C
19%Grade D · redlined

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Central Park. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

20.0%Housing insecurity
14.3%Utility-shutoff threat
28.2%Food insecurity
30.9%SNAP enrollment
13.8%Transit barriers
13.5%No health insurance
18.7%Frequent mental distress
42.9%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Central Park

65% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, far above the Winnebago County average of 44.4%. Pulling hardest the other way is rent-regulation exposure at 2/10.

The poverty rate is 29%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. Well under the midpoint, supply constraint reads 2.3/10.

Food insecurity runs 28.2% against 17.8% nationally. It sits 1.1 points above the Winnebago County average of 4.3. On the high side, economic stress reads 7.2/10.

At $859 a month, rents run 13% under what the rest of Rockford commands. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 14.3% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.

This ground was mapped D ("Hazardous") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Rockford. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above. Nationally it ranks #24,859 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 17201003602

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 17201003602?

Census tract 17201003602 in the Central Park neighborhood scores 5.4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 17201003602?

Median gross rent is $859/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 65% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 17201003602?

28.6% of residents in tract 17201003602 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,037.

How socially vulnerable is tract 17201003602?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 95th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 87th, household 98th, minority 58th, housing 88th.

Is tract 17201003602 considered part of Central Park?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 17201003602 fall within Central Park (neighborhood centroid within 1.4 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 17201003602 struggle to pay rent?

About 20.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 14.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 17201003602 compare to Rockford overall?

Tract 17201003602 scores 5.4/10, higher than the parent city of Rockford at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Rockford eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Was tract 17201003602 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 19% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Rockford

Top eight tracts in Rockford ranked by composite eviction-risk score.