Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #67,219 of 84,120 nationally
Morehaven Eviction Risk: Lower , Roscoe
Tract 17201003904 · Winnebago County, IL · pop 4,997 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi
17201003904 is a census tract in the Morehaven area of Roscoe, IL. It scores 3/10 for landlords. Population here is 4,997. Cost burden runs 33% here against 44.4% across Winnebago County.
Risk score
3
Lower
Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 8%
Stable renters 16%
Owners 76%
Tract context
Occupied units1,847
Renter share24.4%
SVI overall0.15
Poverty rate6.7%
Median income$88,393
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
23
th percentile
Low
Within state
12
th percentile
Very Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Roscoe and the region
Centroid at 42.4256, -89.0095 · click any tract to drill in
Why Morehaven scores 3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Roscoe
5.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Illinois legislature & governorship
5.2
Economic stress
6.7% poverty · this tract
1.7
Supply constraint
$1,216 rent vs county FMR
5.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Roscoe
5.4
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.6
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Roscoe
6.3
Housing court bias
Inherited from Roscoe
4.4
How Morehaven compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 15
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 34%Socioeconomic
- 35%Household composition
- 18%Racial/ethnic minority
- 6%Housing & transportation
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 8.7%Housing insecurity
- 5.3%Utility-shutoff threat
- 9.8%Food insecurity
- 8.3%SNAP enrollment
- 5.7%Transit barriers
- 6.2%No health insurance
- 16.1%Frequent mental distress
- 27.0%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Morehaven
The main counterweight is economic stress at 1.7/10. Against the Winnebago County average of 4.3, this tract reads safer for landlords by 1.3 points. At $1,216 a month, rents run 15% under what the rest of Roscoe commands.
Food insecurity runs 9.8% against 17.8% nationally. That is riskier than roughly 20% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. At 24% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out.
On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 2.3/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Rent consumes only 17% of average household income of $88,393, an unusually wide affordability cushion.
Statewide the IL average is 5.1, so this tract runs 2.1 points cooler. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 17201003904
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 17201003904?
Census tract 17201003904 in the Morehaven neighborhood scores 3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 17201003904?
Median gross rent is $1,216/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 33% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 17201003904?
6.7% of residents in tract 17201003904 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,997.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 17201003904?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 15th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 34th, household 35th, minority 18th, housing 6th.
Q5
Is tract 17201003904 considered part of Morehaven?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 17201003904 fall within Morehaven (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 17201003904 struggle to pay rent?
About 8.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 17201003904 compare to Roscoe overall?
Tract 17201003904 scores 3/10, lower than the parent city of Roscoe at 4.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Roscoe; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Roscoe
Top eight tracts in Roscoe ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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