Within neighborhood
75
th percentile
High
Neighborhood · Ranked #34,278 of 84,120 nationally
East End Eviction Risk: Moderate , Dayton
Tract 21037051101 · Campbell County, KY · pop 2,343 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi
21037051101 is a census tract in the East End area of Dayton, KY. It scores 4.9/10 for landlords. Population here is 2,343. The severe-burden share is 28%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
4.9
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 26%
Stable renters 22%
Owners 52%
Tract context
Occupied units1,070
Renter share47.9%
SVI overall0.45
Poverty rate15.3%
Median income$67,000
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
50
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
79
th percentile
High
Within state
85
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Dayton and the region
Centroid at 39.1134, -84.4766 · click any tract to drill in
Why East End scores 4.9
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Dayton
4.7
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
4.1
State political climate
Kentucky legislature & governorship
2.1
Economic stress
15.3% poverty · this tract
3.8
Supply constraint
$1,468 rent vs county FMR
6.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Dayton
7.8
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.3
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Dayton
7.9
Housing court bias
Inherited from Dayton
7.7
How East End compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 45
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 47%Socioeconomic
- 57%Household composition
- 26%Racial/ethnic minority
- 43%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 20%Grade B
- 26%Grade C
- 19%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within East End. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in East End
Cost burden runs 55% here against 41.8% across Campbell County. At $1,468 a month, rents run 29% over what the rest of Dayton commands. The score leans hardest on tenant-organizing strength at 7.9/10.
Running cool, state political climate reads 2.1/10. Sitting well above the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 7.8/10.
Against the Campbell County average of 4.0, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 0.9 points. The voucher gap is 14.1%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. This ground was mapped C ("Definitely Declining") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Covington. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above.
Nationally it ranks #34,278 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. Social vulnerability reads 5.1/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Statewide the KY average is 3.9, so this tract runs 1.0 points hotter.
Annual rent works out to 26% of average household income of $67,000.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 21037051101
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 21037051101?
Census tract 21037051101 in the East End neighborhood scores 4.9/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 21037051101?
Median gross rent is $1,468/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 55% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 21037051101?
15.3% of residents in tract 21037051101 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,343.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 21037051101?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 45th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 47th, household 57th, minority 26th, housing 43th.
Q5
Is tract 21037051101 considered part of East End?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 21037051101 fall within East End (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How does tract 21037051101 compare to Dayton overall?
Tract 21037051101 scores 4.9/10, higher than the parent city of Dayton at 4.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Dayton; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q7
Was tract 21037051101 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 19% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Dayton
Top eight tracts in Dayton ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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