Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #37,643 of 84,120 nationally
Lower Mills Eviction Risk: Moderate , Boston
Tract 25025100900 · Suffolk County, MA · pop 4,440 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
In the Lower Mills area of Boston, census tract 25025100900 scores 5.8/10 for eviction risk. That is riskier than about 68% of US census tracts.
About 25% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a moderate level, and 7% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,847 monthly, set against $114,034 in average yearly household income, roughly 19% of income at the averages. Renters make up 25% of occupied homes.
Risk score
4.2
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 6%
Stable renters 19%
Owners 75%
Tract context
Occupied units1,718
Renter share25.1%
SVI overall0.56
Poverty rate4.0%
Median income$114,034
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
16
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
18
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
67
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Boston and the region
Centroid at 42.2740, -71.0742 · click any tract to drill in
Why Lower Mills scores 4.2
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Boston
8.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.2
State political climate
Massachusetts legislature & governorship
6.2
Economic stress
4.0% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$1,847 rent vs county FMR
1.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Boston
8.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
8.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Boston
8.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Boston
8.0
How Lower Mills compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 56
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 29%Socioeconomic
- 53%Household composition
- 84%Racial/ethnic minority
- 76%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 17%Grade B
- 83%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 209Total filings over 5 yrs
- 5.85%Avg annual filing rate
- 7.1%Peak (2012)
- 44Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 15% over the past 5 months.
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 61Total filings 2020-21
- 1.3Avg monthly (observed)
- 3.4Pre-pandemic baseline
- 0.38×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran far below baseline (moratorium effect). Eviction Lab tracked Boston, MA as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Lower Mills. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 15.8%Housing insecurity
- 10.1%Utility-shutoff threat
- 16.3%Food insecurity
- 18.2%SNAP enrollment
- 9.7%Transit barriers
- 4.9%No health insurance
- 15.9%Frequent mental distress
- 25.1%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Lower Mills
The score leans hardest on tenant organizing strength at 8.5/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Boston eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores below the Suffolk County average of 6.7 and in line with the Massachusetts statewide average of 5.9. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.
HOLC surveyors mapped this tract in the 1930s with a dominant grade of C ("Declining"), above the redlined D tier. The grading still shaped decades of lending and development in the surrounding area.
In CDC survey modeling, about 15.8% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 10.1% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 25025100900
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 25025100900?
Census tract 25025100900 in the Lower Mills neighborhood scores 4.2/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 25025100900?
Median gross rent is $1,847/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 25% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 25025100900?
4.0% of residents in tract 25025100900 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,440.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 25025100900?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 56th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 29th, household 53th, minority 84th, housing 76th.
Q5
Is tract 25025100900 considered part of Lower Mills?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 25025100900 fall within Lower Mills (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 25025100900?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 209 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 25025100900 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 5.85% of renter households, peaking at 7.1% in 2012. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
Did eviction filings in tract 25025100900 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 0.38× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings dropped sharply, likely a moratorium effect. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Boston eviction risk, MA), 2020-2021.
Q8
What share of households in tract 25025100900 struggle to pay rent?
About 15.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q9
How does tract 25025100900 compare to Boston overall?
Tract 25025100900 scores 4.2/10, lower than the parent city of Boston at 7.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Boston eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q10
Was tract 25025100900 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Boston
Top eight tracts in Boston ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · MA
Frederick Douglass Square Historic District
7.9
/ 10 · High
Tract · MA
Frederick Douglass Square Historic District
7.8
/ 10 · High
Tract · MA
Packard's Corner
7.8
/ 10 · High
Tract · MA
Frederick Douglass Square Historic District
7.8
/ 10 · High
Tract · MA
Dorchester Heights
7.7
/ 10 · High
Tract · MA
Mount Bowdoin
7.7
/ 10 · High
Tract · MA
Frederick Douglass Square Historic District
7.6
/ 10 · High
Tract · MA
Dorchester Heights
7.6
/ 10 · High
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