2 census tracts · pop 10,696 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 8.3/10
· range 6.7–9.5
Lower Mills is a 2-tract neighborhood of Boston, MA and houses 10,696 people. Scored across those inputs it reaches 8.3/10, placing it in the High tier. Cost burden runs 51% against 30.6% citywide, putting Lower Mills 19.9% over its own city.
Internally this is not one market. Tract scores span 6.7 to 9.5, so two buildings inside the same boundary can carry materially different risk. The clearest offset is supply constraint, at 1.2/10. 26% are severely burdened, paying half their income or more in rent. That cohort has no absorption capacity for an unexpected bill, and it is where non-payment filings originate.
On the high side is tenant-organizing strength at 8.5/10. At $1,583 a month, rents sit 26% under what the rest of Boston commands.
Sitting well above the midpoint is rent-regulation exposure at 8/10. 15.9% of adults report being unable to pay a utility bill, against a 9.2% national figure. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.
CDC survey data puts housing insecurity at 22.5% of adults, against 14.2% nationally. Court records carry 819 eviction filings across its 2 observed tracts.
The poverty rate is 17%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than the filing statistics suggest. The worst year on record was 2013, when filings touched 10.3% of renter households. Recent filings have not receded much: 7.3% in 2016 against a 10.3% peak.
That places it #21 of 57 neighborhoods in Boston. For a like-for-like read, Corey Hill and The Flats score within a fraction of it.
Underwrite the address, not the area: with 2.8 points between its best and worst tract, the per-tract table below is the operative number. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.
Risk score
8.3
High
2 tracts · population-weighted
Lower Mills vs BostonHow this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority90%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport87%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab
Court-record eviction history in Lower Mills
Aggregated across 2 validated constituent tracts. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
819Total filings (sum)
7.36%Avg annual filing rate
10.3%Peak year (2013)
7.36%Latest filed (2016)
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
283Total filings 2020-21
3.3Avg monthly observed
7.3Pre-pandemic baseline
0.43×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran far below baseline. Tracked under Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Boston, MA).
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted
Eviction-adjacent indicators in Lower Mills
Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.
23.6%Housing insecurity
16.8%Utility shutoff threat
27.1%Food insecurity
33.3%SNAP enrollment
7.2%No health insurance
32.3%Any disability
Frequently asked
About Lower Mills
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for Lower Mills?
Lower Mills scores 8.3/10 (High tier) across 2 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2
How does Lower Mills compare to Boston overall?
Lower Mills scores 0.2 points higher than Boston overall (8.1/10). Renters spend 51% of income on rent vs 31% citywide. Average rent: $1,583 vs $2,147.
Q3
What is the average rent in Lower Mills?
Average gross rent in Lower Mills is $1,583/month (pop-weighted across 2 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 51% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4
What percentage of Lower Mills residents are renters?
55% of Lower Mills households are renter-occupied (vs 64% in Boston). The neighborhood has 10,696 residents.
Q5
Is Lower Mills a high social-vulnerability area?
Lower Mills sits in the 81st percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (highly vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6
Which tracts in Lower Mills have the highest eviction risk?
The highest-risk constituent tract in Lower Mills is census tract 25025101002 (score 9.5/10). Across the 2 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 6.7 to 9.5, a spread of 2.8 points.
Q7
How safe is Lower Mills for landlords?
Lower Mills carries a high-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (8.3/10). Pop-weighted across 2 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Boston as a whole (8.1/10), this neighborhood is in line with the citywide level.
Q8
What is the demographic breakdown of Lower Mills?
Lower Mills has 11,050 residents. Top groups: Black (non-Hispanic) (67.6%), White (non-Hispanic) (11%), Hispanic / Latino (10.3%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
