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Neighborhood · Ranked #13,349 of 84,120 nationally

Northome Eviction Risk: Elevated , St. Paul

Tract 27123030202 · Ramsey County, MN · pop 2,019 · neighborhood within 1.1 mi

With a score of 6.9/10, tract 27123030202 in the Northome area of St. Paul, MN reads elevated for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 2,019. The score leans hardest on local political climate at 9/10.

Risk score
6.9
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 41% Stable renters 46% Owners 13%
Tract context
Occupied units1,146
Renter share87.6%
SVI overall0.32
Poverty rate12.9%
Median income$71,533

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 3 tracts In Northome
Very High
Within parent city
54 th percentile
Rank, 54th percentileLowHigh
#40 of 85 tracts In St. Paul
Moderate
Within county
73 th percentile
Rank, 73rd percentileLowHigh
#40 of 143 tracts In Ramsey County
Elevated
Within state
92 th percentile
Rank, 92nd percentileLowHigh
#121 of 1,502 tracts In Minnesota
Very High
Geographic context

Risk heat across St. Paul and the region

Centroid at 44.9763, -93.1523 · click any tract to drill in

Why Northome scores 6.9

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from St. Paul
9.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.3
State political climate
Minnesota legislature & governorship
4.3
Economic stress
12.9% poverty · this tract
3.2
Supply constraint
$1,676 rent vs county FMR
4.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from St. Paul
8.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
7.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from St. Paul
8.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from St. Paul
7.5

How Northome compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Northome risk score vs. parent city / county / state6.9This tracttract 0302026.5St. Paulparent city5.6Countyavg tract in county4.5Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 32

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: B: Still Desirable

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade B meant middle-class areas with mortgage access. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 43Total filings over 7 yrs
  • 0.83%Avg annual filing rate
  • 0.9%Peak (2015)
  • 8Filings in 2015 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2009 to 2015
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 27123030202
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 7 months.

Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)

  • 195Total filings 2020-21
  • 2.5Avg monthly (observed)
  • 0.8Pre-pandemic baseline
  • 3.06×Ratio to baseline
Monthly filings 2020–2021 2020-01-01 to 2026-05-01
Monthly eviction filings vs pre-pandemic baseline

Pandemic filings ran above baseline. Eviction Lab tracked Minneapolis-Saint Paul, MN as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Northome. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Northome

88% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. At $1,676 a month, rents run 31% over what the rest of St. Paul commands. Running hot, rent-regulation exposure reads 8.5/10.

On the high side, tenant-organizing strength reads 8.5/10. Severe burden reaches 19%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.

Against the Ramsey County average of 5.6, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.3 points. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 43 filings here across 7 tracked years. SNAP participation runs 7.6% against 15.2% nationally.

The worst year on record was 2015, when 0.9% of renter households were served. In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground B ("Still Desirable"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today.

In a typical year about 0.8% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 84th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. Social vulnerability reads 3.9/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.

Statewide the MN average is 4.5, so this tract runs 2.4 points hotter. Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 27123030202

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 27123030202?

Census tract 27123030202 in the Northome neighborhood scores 6.9/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 27123030202?

Median gross rent is $1,676/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 47% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 27123030202?

12.9% of residents in tract 27123030202 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,019.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 27123030202?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 32th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 47th, household 2th, minority 61th, housing 64th.
Q5

Is tract 27123030202 considered part of Northome?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 27123030202 fall within Northome (neighborhood centroid within 1.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 27123030202?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 43 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 27123030202 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 0.83% of renter households, peaking at 0.9% in 2015. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

Did eviction filings in tract 27123030202 drop during COVID?

Pandemic-era filings ran 3.06× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings ran above pre-pandemic norms. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Minneapolis eviction risk-Saint Paul, MN), 2020-2021.
Q8

What share of households in tract 27123030202 struggle to pay rent?

About 10.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q9

How does tract 27123030202 compare to St. Paul overall?

Tract 27123030202 scores 6.9/10, higher than the parent city of St. Paul at 6.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from St. Paul eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q10

Was tract 27123030202 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of B. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in St. Paul

Top eight tracts in St. Paul ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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