Within neighborhood
75
th percentile
High
Neighborhood · Ranked #15,522 of 84,120 nationally
North End Eviction Risk: Moderate , St. Paul
Tract 27123030400 · Ramsey County, MN · pop 6,035 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi
Eviction risk in North End in St. Paul centers on tract 27123030400, which scores 6.6/10 (Elevated tier) and is home to 6,035 residents. That is riskier than roughly 89% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.
About 50% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 27% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $1,150 a month against an average household income of $57,396 a year, roughly 24% of income at the averages. About 61% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.
Risk score
5.7
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 31%
Stable renters 30%
Owners 39%
Tract context
Occupied units2,436
Renter share61.0%
SVI overall0.85
Poverty rate16.2%
Median income$57,396
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
70
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
82
th percentile
High
Within state
90
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across St. Paul and the region
Centroid at 44.9855, -93.1167 · click any tract to drill in
Why North End scores 5.7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from St. Paul
9.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.3
State political climate
Minnesota legislature & governorship
4.3
Economic stress
16.2% poverty · this tract
4.1
Supply constraint
$1,150 rent vs county FMR
1.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from St. Paul
8.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
7.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from St. Paul
8.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from St. Paul
7.5
How North End compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 85
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 81%Socioeconomic
- 58%Household composition
- 74%Racial/ethnic minority
- 88%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 0%Grade C
- 27%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 847Total filings over 7 yrs
- 7.75%Avg annual filing rate
- 10.7%Peak (2010)
- 73Filings in 2015 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 50% over the past 7 months.
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 494Total filings 2020-21
- 6.4Avg monthly (observed)
- 5.8Pre-pandemic baseline
- 1.11×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran near baseline. Eviction Lab tracked Minneapolis-Saint Paul, MN as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within North End. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 17.9%Housing insecurity
- 10.9%Utility-shutoff threat
- 25.5%Food insecurity
- 18.3%SNAP enrollment
- 13.6%Transit barriers
- 11.1%No health insurance
- 19.1%Frequent mental distress
- 31.9%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in North End
The heaviest input here is rent-control risk at 8.5/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from St. Paul eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Ramsey County average of 6.0 and above the Minnesota statewide average of 5.0. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
During 2020 and 2021, eviction filings here ran at about 1.11x the pre-COVID monthly baseline, roughly back to the pre-pandemic baseline.
In CDC survey modeling, about 17.9% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 10.9% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.
Frequently asked
About tract 27123030400
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 27123030400?
Census tract 27123030400 in the North End neighborhood scores 5.7/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 27123030400?
Median gross rent is $1,150/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 50% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 27123030400?
16.2% of residents in tract 27123030400 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,035.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 27123030400?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 85th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 81th, household 58th, minority 74th, housing 88th.
Q5
Is tract 27123030400 considered part of North End?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 27123030400 fall within North End (neighborhood centroid within 0.8 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 27123030400?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 847 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 27123030400 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 7.75% of renter households, peaking at 10.7% in 2010. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
Did eviction filings in tract 27123030400 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 1.11× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings returned near baseline. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Minneapolis eviction risk-Saint Paul, MN), 2020-2021.
Q8
What share of households in tract 27123030400 struggle to pay rent?
About 17.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q9
How does tract 27123030400 compare to St. Paul overall?
Tract 27123030400 scores 5.7/10, lower than the parent city of St. Paul at 6.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from St. Paul eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q10
Was tract 27123030400 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 27% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in St. Paul
Top eight tracts in St. Paul ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · MN
Payne - Phalen
7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MN
Rondo
7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MN
North End
6.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MN
Rondo
6.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MN
Rondo
6.7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MN
Rondo
6.6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MN
Snelling - Hamline
6.6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MN
Eastview
6.6
/ 10 · Elevated
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