Within neighborhood
25
th percentile
Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #14,906 of 84,120 nationally
North End Eviction Risk: Elevated , St. Paul
Tract 27123031400 · Ramsey County, MN · pop 3,202 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi
Census tract 27123031400 covers part of the North End area of St. Paul, MN, and scores 6.6/10 on landlord eviction risk. It is home to 3,202 residents. Severe burden reaches 36%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.
Risk score
6.6
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 22%
Stable renters 23%
Owners 55%
Tract context
Occupied units1,035
Renter share44.8%
SVI overall0.90
Poverty rate11.2%
Median income$76,688
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
43
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
66
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
90
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across St. Paul and the region
Centroid at 44.9693, -93.0989 · click any tract to drill in
Why North End scores 6.6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from St. Paul
9.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.3
State political climate
Minnesota legislature & governorship
4.3
Economic stress
11.2% poverty · this tract
2.8
Supply constraint
$1,315 rent vs county FMR
2.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from St. Paul
8.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
7.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from St. Paul
8.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from St. Paul
7.5
How North End compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 90
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 84%Socioeconomic
- 97%Household composition
- 81%Racial/ethnic minority
- 63%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 42%Grade C
- 58%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 297Total filings over 7 yrs
- 8.47%Avg annual filing rate
- 9.0%Peak (2014)
- 40Filings in 2015 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 7 months.
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 172Total filings 2020-21
- 2.2Avg monthly (observed)
- 2.8Pre-pandemic baseline
- 0.81×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran below baseline. Eviction Lab tracked Minneapolis-Saint Paul, MN as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within North End. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 19.9%Housing insecurity
- 11.9%Utility-shutoff threat
- 28.5%Food insecurity
- 20.2%SNAP enrollment
- 14.7%Transit barriers
- 13.5%No health insurance
- 19.2%Frequent mental distress
- 32.5%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in North End
What pushes it up most is local political climate at 9/10. On the high side, rent-regulation exposure reads 8.5/10. Running hot, tenant-organizing strength reads 8.5/10.
Food insecurity runs 28.5% against 17.8% nationally. It sits 1.0 points above the Ramsey County average of 5.6. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 297 filings here across 7 tracked years.
Filings peaked in 2014 at 9.0% of renter households. This ground was mapped D ("Hazardous") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for St. Paul. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above.
In a typical year about 8.5% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 82nd percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 9.1/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.
Statewide the MN average is 4.5, so this tract runs 2.1 points hotter. Of its three components the household composition measure is the most pressured.
48% of renter households spend at least 30% of income on rent.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 27123031400
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 27123031400?
Census tract 27123031400 in the North End neighborhood scores 6.6/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 27123031400?
Median gross rent is $1,315/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 48% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 27123031400?
11.2% of residents in tract 27123031400 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,202.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 27123031400?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 90th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 84th, household 97th, minority 81th, housing 63th.
Q5
Is tract 27123031400 considered part of North End?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 27123031400 fall within North End (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 27123031400?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 297 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 27123031400 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 8.47% of renter households, peaking at 9.0% in 2014. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
Did eviction filings in tract 27123031400 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 0.81× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings ran modestly below normal. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Minneapolis eviction risk-Saint Paul, MN), 2020-2021.
Q8
What share of households in tract 27123031400 struggle to pay rent?
About 19.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 11.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q9
How does tract 27123031400 compare to St. Paul overall?
Tract 27123031400 scores 6.6/10, right in line with the parent city of St. Paul at 6.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from St. Paul eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q10
Was tract 27123031400 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 58% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in St. Paul
Top eight tracts in St. Paul ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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