Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #45,786 of 84,120 nationally
North End Eviction Risk: Moderate , St. Paul
Tract 27123042201 · Ramsey County, MN · pop 1,711 · neighborhood within 1.5 mi
With a score of 4.2/10, tract 27123042201 in the North End area of Maplewood, MN reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 1,711 residents. The main counterweight is supply constraint at 2.1/10.
Risk score
4.2
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 15%
Stable renters 23%
Owners 62%
Tract context
Occupied units568
Renter share37.3%
SVI overall0.62
Poverty rate10.5%
Median income$81,413
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
50
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
25
th percentile
Low
Within state
54
th percentile
Moderate
Geographic context
Risk heat across St. Paul and the region
Centroid at 44.9979, -93.0974 · click any tract to drill in
Why North End scores 4.2
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from St. Paul
7.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.3
State political climate
Minnesota legislature & governorship
4.3
Economic stress
10.5% poverty · this tract
2.6
Supply constraint
$1,188 rent vs county FMR
2.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from St. Paul
7.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.7
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from St. Paul
6.3
Housing court bias
Inherited from St. Paul
6.1
How North End compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 62
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 51%Socioeconomic
- 67%Household composition
- 69%Racial/ethnic minority
- 58%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 42Total filings over 6 yrs
- 8.12%Avg annual filing rate
- 15.3%Peak (2009)
- 1Filings in 2014 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 100% over the past 7 months.
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 17Total filings 2020-21
- 0.2Avg monthly (observed)
- 0.5Pre-pandemic baseline
- 0.44×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran far below baseline (moratorium effect). Eviction Lab tracked Minneapolis-Saint Paul, MN as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within North End. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 11.7%Housing insecurity
- 6.9%Utility-shutoff threat
- 17.3%Food insecurity
- 11.1%SNAP enrollment
- 9.3%Transit barriers
- 9.1%No health insurance
- 15.6%Frequent mental distress
- 30.3%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in North End
39% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, lower than the Ramsey County average of 47.3%. It sits 1.4 points below the Ramsey County average of 5.6.
Running hot, local political climate reads 7.5/10. 12% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
On the softer side, economic stress reads 2.6/10. Average gross rent is $1,188, 16% below the Maplewood average.
The filing record is not thin: 42 evictions over 6 years of observation. The worst year on record was 2009, when 15.3% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 8.1% of renter households face a filing.
That is riskier than roughly 46% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 6.6/10. Against average income of $81,413, annual rent is just 18%.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 27123042201
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 27123042201?
Census tract 27123042201 in the North End neighborhood scores 4.2/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 27123042201?
Median gross rent is $1,188/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 39% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 27123042201?
10.5% of residents in tract 27123042201 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,711.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 27123042201?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 62th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 51th, household 67th, minority 69th, housing 58th.
Q5
Is tract 27123042201 considered part of North End?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 27123042201 fall within North End (neighborhood centroid within 1.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 27123042201?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 42 eviction filings across 6 validated years in tract 27123042201 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 8.12% of renter households, peaking at 15.3% in 2009. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
Did eviction filings in tract 27123042201 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 0.44× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings dropped sharply, likely a moratorium effect. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Minneapolis eviction risk-Saint Paul, MN), 2020-2021.
Q8
What share of households in tract 27123042201 struggle to pay rent?
About 11.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q9
How does tract 27123042201 compare to St. Paul overall?
Tract 27123042201 scores 4.2/10, lower than the parent city of St. Paul at 6.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from St. Paul eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in St. Paul
Top eight tracts in St. Paul ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · MN
27123042202
5.1
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · MN
Beaver Lake
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · MN
Sherwood Park Neighborhood
4.3
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · MN
Sherwood Park Neighborhood
4.3
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · MN
Sherwood Park Neighborhood
3.2
/ 10 · Low
Tract · MN
Sherwood Park Neighborhood
3
/ 10 · Low
Tract · MN
Highwood
3
/ 10 · Low
Tract · MN
Battle Creek
3
/ 10 · Low
Related