Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #8,653 of 84,120 nationally
North End Eviction Risk: Elevated , St. Paul
Tract 27123030500 · Ramsey County, MN · pop 6,160 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi
With a score of 7.9/10, tract 27123030500 in the North End area of St. Paul, MN reads elevated for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 6,160 residents. Severe burden reaches 29%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.
Risk score
7.9
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 38%
Stable renters 29%
Owners 33%
Tract context
Occupied units1,924
Renter share66.9%
SVI overall0.96
Poverty rate32.1%
Median income$49,717
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
83
th percentile
High
Within county
87
th percentile
High
Within state
97
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across St. Paul and the region
Centroid at 44.9827, -93.0973 · click any tract to drill in
Why North End scores 7.9
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from St. Paul
9.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.3
State political climate
Minnesota legislature & governorship
4.3
Economic stress
32.1% poverty · this tract
8.0
Supply constraint
$1,063 rent vs county FMR
1.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from St. Paul
8.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
7.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from St. Paul
8.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from St. Paul
7.5
How North End compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 96
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 84%Socioeconomic
- 96%Household composition
- 85%Racial/ethnic minority
- 94%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 43%Grade C
- 5%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 277Total filings over 7 yrs
- 3.26%Avg annual filing rate
- 4.0%Peak (2013)
- 31Filings in 2015 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 7 months.
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 410Total filings 2020-21
- 5.3Avg monthly (observed)
- 3.0Pre-pandemic baseline
- 1.77×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran above baseline. Eviction Lab tracked Minneapolis-Saint Paul, MN as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within North End. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 26.1%Housing insecurity
- 17.5%Utility-shutoff threat
- 42.4%Food insecurity
- 35.3%SNAP enrollment
- 21.5%Transit barriers
- 16.1%No health insurance
- 21.4%Frequent mental distress
- 40.3%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in North End
What pushes it up most is local political climate at 9/10. Against the Ramsey County average of 5.6, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 2.3 points. SNAP participation runs 35.3% against 15.2% nationally.
Well under the midpoint, supply constraint reads 1.3/10. The poverty rate is 32%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. This is renter territory: 67% of occupied units are tenant-occupied.
Sitting well above the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 8.5/10. Against Ramsey County at 47.3%, 56% of renters here are cost-burdened. Housing insecurity runs 26.1% against 14.2% nationally.
Average gross rent is $1,063, 17% below the St. Paul average. Court records carry 277 eviction filings across 7 observed years. The worst year on record was 2013, when 4.0% of renter households were served.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 27123030500
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 27123030500?
Census tract 27123030500 in the North End neighborhood scores 7.9/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 27123030500?
Median gross rent is $1,063/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 56% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 27123030500?
32.1% of residents in tract 27123030500 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,160.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 27123030500?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 96th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 84th, household 96th, minority 85th, housing 94th.
Q5
Is tract 27123030500 considered part of North End?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 27123030500 fall within North End (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 27123030500?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 277 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 27123030500 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 3.26% of renter households, peaking at 4.0% in 2013. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
Did eviction filings in tract 27123030500 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 1.77× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings ran above pre-pandemic norms. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Minneapolis eviction risk-Saint Paul, MN), 2020-2021.
Q8
What share of households in tract 27123030500 struggle to pay rent?
About 26.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 17.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q9
How does tract 27123030500 compare to St. Paul overall?
Tract 27123030500 scores 7.9/10, higher than the parent city of St. Paul at 6.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from St. Paul eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q10
Was tract 27123030500 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 5% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in St. Paul
Top eight tracts in St. Paul ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · MN
Snelling - Hamline
7.9
/ 10 · High
Tract · MN
Eastview
7.9
/ 10 · High
Tract · MN
Payne - Phalen
7.9
/ 10 · High
Tract · MN
Rondo
7.9
/ 10 · High
Tract · MN
Rondo
7.9
/ 10 · High
Tract · MN
South Saint Anthony Park
7.9
/ 10 · High
Tract · MN
Iris Park
7.9
/ 10 · High
Tract · MN
Highwood Hills
7.9
/ 10 · High
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