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Neighborhood · St. Paul, MN

North End Eviction Risk: Moderate

5 census tracts · pop 22,384 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 5.6/10 · range 3.5–6.9

North End is a white-asian neighborhood in St. Paul with 5 census tracts and a population of 22,384 residents. The neighborhood's pop-weighted eviction-risk score of 5.6/10 (Moderate tier) blends state law, county-level filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty. 49% of renters here pay at least 30% of household income on rent, and 26% are severely cost-burdened (≥50% of income). Average gross rent of $1,160/month sits 9% lower than the St. Paul citywide average ($1,281).

Risk score
5.6
Moderate
5 tracts · population-weighted
North End vs St. Paul How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
% of income on rent
49.0% +63%
St. Paul: 30.0%
Average gross rent
$1,160 -9%
St. Paul: $1,281
Average HH income
$65,010 -15%
St. Paul: $76,411
Poverty rate
18.6% +18%
St. Paul: 15.8%
Renter share
51.2% +9%
St. Paul: 47.1%
Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across North End and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 5 tracts span score 3.5–6.9

Why North End scores 5.6

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly
State political climate
legislature & governorship · Range 4.3–4.3 across tracts
4.3
Regional political climate
County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 7.3–7.3 across tracts
7.3
Local political climate
Parent city governance · Range 7.5–9.0 across tracts
8.9
Rent control risk
49% of income on rent · Range 7.0–8.5 across tracts
8.4
Eviction process difficulty
State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 3.7–7.5 across tracts
7.2
Tenant organizing strength
51% renter households · Range 6.3–8.5 across tracts
8.3
Housing court bias
County bench composition · Range 6.1–7.5 across tracts
7.4
Economic stress
18.6% below poverty line · Range 2.6–8.0 across tracts
4.7
Supply constraint
Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 1.3–2.8 across tracts
1.9
Risk score comparison

North End vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

North End score vs. parent city, state, U.S.North End: 5.65.6North EndNeighborhoodParent city: 6.66.6Parent cityhost cityState: 5.25.2Stateavg in stateU.S.: 4.74.7U.S.national avgU.S. avg = 5.0
Variance across tracts

How uniformly does eviction risk play out in North End?

Left: distribution of constituent tract scores. Right: every tract as a heat square. Click any square to drill in.

Score distribution
0246810
Spread of 3.4 points from 3.5 to 6.9. This neighborhood crosses multiple risk tiers, so block-by-block conditions vary substantially.
Tracts as heat grid
Each square = one census tract. Color tracks the same green→red ramp as the chloropleth map above.
Census tracts

5 tracts in North End

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract Score Pop % over 30% on rent Average rent
27123030500 6.9 6,160 56% $1,063
27123030400 5.7 6,035 50% $1,150
27123030800 5 5,276 43% $1,183
27123031400 4.9 3,202 48% $1,315
27123042201 3.5 1,711 39% $1,188
Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 87

Pop-weighted across 5 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 81%ile
Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden
Household characteristics 81%ile
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority 79%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport 80%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history in North End

Aggregated across 5 validated constituent tracts. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 1,846Total filings (sum)
  • 6.88%Avg annual filing rate
  • 15.3%Peak year (2015)
  • 5.19%Latest filed (2015)

Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)

  • 1,270Total filings 2020-21
  • 4.1Avg monthly observed
  • 3.6Pre-pandemic baseline
  • 1.11×Ratio to baseline

Pandemic filings ran near baseline. Tracked under Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Minneapolis-Saint Paul, MN).

CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in North End

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

Frequently asked

About North End

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for North End?

North End scores 5.6/10 (Moderate tier) across 5 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2

How does North End compare to St. Paul overall?

North End scores 1.0 points lower than St. Paul overall (6.6/10). Renters spend 49% of income on rent vs 30% citywide. Average rent: $1,160 vs $1,281.
Q3

What is the average rent in North End?

Average gross rent in North End is $1,160/month (pop-weighted across 5 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 49% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4

What percentage of North End residents are renters?

51% of North End households are renter-occupied (vs 47% in St. Paul). The neighborhood has 22,384 residents.
Q5

Is North End a high social-vulnerability area?

North End sits in the 87th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (highly vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6

Which tracts in North End have the highest eviction risk?

The highest-risk constituent tract in North End is census tract 27123030500 (score 6.9/10). Across the 5 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 3.5 to 6.9, a spread of 3.4 points.
Q7

How safe is North End for landlords?

North End carries a moderate-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (5.6/10). Pop-weighted across 5 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to St. Paul as a whole (6.6/10), this neighborhood is lower-risk.
Q8

What is the demographic breakdown of North End?

North End has 21,586 residents (White-Asian Neighborhood). Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (30.5%), Asian (non-Hispanic) (29.3%), Black (non-Hispanic) (21.9%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
Nearby

Other neighborhoods near North End

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside St. Paul

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to North End.

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