Within neighborhood
17
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #15,451 of 84,120 nationally
Payne - Phalen Eviction Risk: Elevated , St. Paul
Tract 27123030602 · Ramsey County, MN · pop 4,205 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi
Census tract 27123030602 covers part of the Payne - Phalen area of St. Paul, MN, and scores 6.5/10 on landlord eviction risk. The dominant input is local political climate at 9/10.
Risk score
6.5
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 8%
Stable renters 11%
Owners 81%
Tract context
Occupied units1,373
Renter share19.4%
SVI overall0.77
Poverty rate9.0%
Median income$71,292
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
37
th percentile
Low
Within county
62
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
90
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across St. Paul and the region
Centroid at 44.9878, -93.0619 · click any tract to drill in
Why Payne - Phalen scores 6.5
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from St. Paul
9.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.3
State political climate
Minnesota legislature & governorship
4.3
Economic stress
9.0% poverty · this tract
2.3
Supply constraint
$1,074 rent vs county FMR
1.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from St. Paul
8.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
7.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from St. Paul
8.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from St. Paul
7.5
How Payne - Phalen compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 77
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 71%Socioeconomic
- 79%Household composition
- 67%Racial/ethnic minority
- 66%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: A: Best
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade A meant wealthy, predominantly white neighborhoods favored for lending. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 13%Grade A
- 10%Grade B
- 0%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 175Total filings over 7 yrs
- 7.91%Avg annual filing rate
- 9.8%Peak (2012)
- 27Filings in 2015 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 7 months.
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 48Total filings 2020-21
- 0.6Avg monthly (observed)
- 1.4Pre-pandemic baseline
- 0.46×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran far below baseline (moratorium effect). Eviction Lab tracked Minneapolis-Saint Paul, MN as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Payne - Phalen. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 13.0%Housing insecurity
- 7.3%Utility-shutoff threat
- 19.0%Food insecurity
- 12.0%SNAP enrollment
- 10.1%Transit barriers
- 9.9%No health insurance
- 16.9%Frequent mental distress
- 28.6%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Payne - Phalen
Running cool, supply constraint reads 1.4/10. Running hot, rent-regulation exposure reads 8.5/10. Severe burden reaches 13%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.
Average gross rent is $1,074, 16% below the St. Paul average. Against the Ramsey County average of 5.6, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 0.9 points. The filing record is not thin: 175 evictions over 7 years of observation.
Against Ramsey County at 47.3%, 43% of renters here are cost-burdened. The worst year on record was 2012, when 9.8% of renter households were served. This ground was mapped A ("Best") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for St. Paul. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above.
In a typical year about 7.9% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 82nd percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. At 19% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 27123030602
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 27123030602?
Census tract 27123030602 in the Payne - Phalen neighborhood scores 6.5/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 27123030602?
Median gross rent is $1,074/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 43% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 27123030602?
9.0% of residents in tract 27123030602 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,205.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 27123030602?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 77th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 71th, household 79th, minority 67th, housing 66th.
Q5
Is tract 27123030602 considered part of Payne - Phalen?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 27123030602 fall within Payne - Phalen (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 27123030602?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 175 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 27123030602 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 7.91% of renter households, peaking at 9.8% in 2012. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
Did eviction filings in tract 27123030602 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 0.46× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings dropped sharply, likely a moratorium effect. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Minneapolis eviction risk-Saint Paul, MN), 2020-2021.
Q8
What share of households in tract 27123030602 struggle to pay rent?
About 13.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q9
How does tract 27123030602 compare to St. Paul overall?
Tract 27123030602 scores 6.5/10, right in line with the parent city of St. Paul at 6.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from St. Paul eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q10
Was tract 27123030602 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of A. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in St. Paul
Top eight tracts in St. Paul ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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