Payne - Phalen Eviction Risk: Elevated , St. Paul

Running cool, economic stress reads 1.4/10. The severe-burden share is 22%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. Sitting well above the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 8.5/10.

52% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, above the Ramsey County average of 47.3%. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 173 filings here across 7 tracked years.

The worst year on record was 2009, when 23.0% of renter households were served. This ground was mapped B ("Still Desirable") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for St. Paul. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above. In a typical year about 7.8% of renter households face a filing.

Nationally it ranks #17,650 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. At 20% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 7.3/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Statewide the MN average is 4.5, so this tract runs 1.6 points hotter. Of its three components the household composition measure is the most pressured. Poverty sits at 5%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.