Within neighborhood
80
th percentile
High
Neighborhood · Ranked #8,653 of 84,120 nationally
Rondo Eviction Risk: Elevated , St. Paul
Tract 27123033600 · Ramsey County, MN · pop 2,253 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
27123033600 is a census tract in the Rondo area of St. Paul, MN. It scores 7.9/10 for landlords. It is home to 2,253 residents. What pushes it up most is economic stress at 10/10.
Risk score
7.9
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 28%
Stable renters 52%
Owners 20%
Tract context
Occupied units816
Renter share80.4%
SVI overall0.97
Poverty rate48.9%
Median income$29,034
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
85
th percentile
High
Within county
99
th percentile
Very High
Within state
97
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across St. Paul and the region
Centroid at 44.9529, -93.1207 · click any tract to drill in
Why Rondo scores 7.9
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from St. Paul
9.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.3
State political climate
Minnesota legislature & governorship
4.3
Economic stress
48.9% poverty · this tract
10.0
Supply constraint
$859 rent vs county FMR
1.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from St. Paul
8.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
7.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from St. Paul
8.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from St. Paul
7.5
How Rondo compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 97
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 93%Socioeconomic
- 82%Household composition
- 97%Racial/ethnic minority
- 94%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 5%Grade C
- 81%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 60Total filings over 7 yrs
- 1.61%Avg annual filing rate
- 2.5%Peak (2014)
- 10Filings in 2015 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 43% over the past 7 months.
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 127Total filings 2020-21
- 1.7Avg monthly (observed)
- 0.6Pre-pandemic baseline
- 2.57×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran above baseline. Eviction Lab tracked Minneapolis-Saint Paul, MN as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Rondo. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 36.8%Housing insecurity
- 29.1%Utility-shutoff threat
- 52.5%Food insecurity
- 52.2%SNAP enrollment
- 29.3%Transit barriers
- 15.8%No health insurance
- 24.1%Frequent mental distress
- 44.9%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Rondo
SNAP participation runs 52.2% against 15.2% nationally. The poverty rate is 49%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. It sits 2.3 points above the Ramsey County average of 5.6.
Inability to pay a utility bill runs 29.1% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. On the high side, local political climate reads 9/10.
around a third of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well below the Ramsey County average of 47.3%. 80% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. At $859 a month, rents run 33% under what the rest of St. Paul commands.
Set annual rent against average income of $29,034 and the ratio lands at 36%, above the conventional 30% ceiling. Well under the midpoint, supply constraint reads 1/10. Severe burden reaches 14%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 27123033600
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 27123033600?
Census tract 27123033600 in the Rondo neighborhood scores 7.9/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 27123033600?
Median gross rent is $859/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 35% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 27123033600?
48.9% of residents in tract 27123033600 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,253.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 27123033600?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 97th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 93th, household 82th, minority 97th, housing 94th.
Q5
Is tract 27123033600 considered part of Rondo?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 27123033600 fall within Rondo (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 27123033600?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 60 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 27123033600 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 1.61% of renter households, peaking at 2.5% in 2014. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
Did eviction filings in tract 27123033600 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 2.57× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings ran above pre-pandemic norms. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Minneapolis eviction risk-Saint Paul, MN), 2020-2021.
Q8
What share of households in tract 27123033600 struggle to pay rent?
About 36.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 29.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q9
How does tract 27123033600 compare to St. Paul overall?
Tract 27123033600 scores 7.9/10, higher than the parent city of St. Paul at 6.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from St. Paul eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q10
Was tract 27123033600 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 81% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in St. Paul
Top eight tracts in St. Paul ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · MN
South Saint Anthony Park
7.9
/ 10 · High
Tract · MN
Highwood Hills
7.9
/ 10 · High
Tract · MN
Iris Park
7.9
/ 10 · High
Tract · MN
Rondo
7.9
/ 10 · High
Tract · MN
Payne - Phalen
7.9
/ 10 · High
Tract · MN
Highland
7.9
/ 10 · High
Tract · MN
Rondo
7.9
/ 10 · High
Tract · MN
Pig's Eye
7.9
/ 10 · High
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