Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #21,564 of 84,120 nationally
West Seventh - Fort Road Eviction Risk: Moderate , St. Paul
Tract 27123037000 · Ramsey County, MN · pop 2,711 · neighborhood within 1.0 mi
Census tract 27123037000 covers part of the West Seventh - Fort Road area of St. Paul, MN, and scores 5.7/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 2,711. What pushes it up most is local political climate at 9/10.
Risk score
5.7
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 9%
Stable renters 14%
Owners 77%
Tract context
Occupied units1,246
Renter share23.4%
SVI overall0.30
Poverty rate5.5%
Median income$90,313
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
14
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
49
th percentile
Moderate
Within state
83
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across St. Paul and the region
Centroid at 44.9219, -93.1080 · click any tract to drill in
Why West Seventh - Fort Road scores 5.7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from St. Paul
9.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.3
State political climate
Minnesota legislature & governorship
4.3
Economic stress
5.5% poverty · this tract
1.4
Supply constraint
$1,629 rent vs county FMR
4.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from St. Paul
8.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
7.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from St. Paul
8.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from St. Paul
7.5
How West Seventh - Fort Road compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 30
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 37%Socioeconomic
- 48%Household composition
- 33%Racial/ethnic minority
- 21%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: B: Still Desirable
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade B meant middle-class areas with mortgage access. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 12%Grade A
- 42%Grade B
- 0%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 153Total filings over 7 yrs
- 10.51%Avg annual filing rate
- 15.0%Peak (2015)
- 29Filings in 2015 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 71% over the past 7 months.
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 44Total filings 2020-21
- 0.6Avg monthly (observed)
- 1.3Pre-pandemic baseline
- 0.45×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran far below baseline (moratorium effect). Eviction Lab tracked Minneapolis-Saint Paul, MN as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within West Seventh - Fort Road. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 9.2%Housing insecurity
- 5.3%Utility-shutoff threat
- 10.5%Food insecurity
- 6.3%SNAP enrollment
- 6.7%Transit barriers
- 7.1%No health insurance
- 15.6%Frequent mental distress
- 23.8%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in West Seventh - Fort Road
Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 1.4/10. At $1,629 a month, rents run 27% over what the rest of St. Paul commands.
On the high side, rent-regulation exposure reads 8.5/10. The severe-burden share is 18%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. 40% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, lower than the Ramsey County average of 47.3%.
SNAP participation runs 6.3% against 15.2% nationally. Court records carry 153 eviction filings across 7 observed years.
Food insecurity runs 10.5% against 17.8% nationally. Filings peaked in 2015 at 15.0% of renter households. In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground B ("Still Desirable"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today.
In a typical year about 10.5% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #21,564 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 27123037000
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 27123037000?
Census tract 27123037000 in the West Seventh - Fort Road neighborhood scores 5.7/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 27123037000?
Median gross rent is $1,629/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 40% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 27123037000?
5.5% of residents in tract 27123037000 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,711.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 27123037000?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 30th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 37th, household 48th, minority 33th, housing 21th.
Q5
Is tract 27123037000 considered part of West Seventh - Fort Road?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 27123037000 fall within West Seventh - Fort Road (neighborhood centroid within 1.0 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 27123037000?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 153 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 27123037000 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 10.51% of renter households, peaking at 15.0% in 2015. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
Did eviction filings in tract 27123037000 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 0.45× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings dropped sharply, likely a moratorium effect. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Minneapolis eviction risk-Saint Paul, MN), 2020-2021.
Q8
What share of households in tract 27123037000 struggle to pay rent?
About 9.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q9
How does tract 27123037000 compare to St. Paul overall?
Tract 27123037000 scores 5.7/10, lower than the parent city of St. Paul at 6.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from St. Paul eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q10
Was tract 27123037000 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of B. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in St. Paul
Top eight tracts in St. Paul ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · MN
Rondo
7.9
/ 10 · High
Tract · MN
South Saint Anthony Park
7.9
/ 10 · High
Tract · MN
Rondo
7.9
/ 10 · High
Tract · MN
Highwood Hills
7.9
/ 10 · High
Tract · MN
Iris Park
7.9
/ 10 · High
Tract · MN
Payne - Phalen
7.9
/ 10 · High
Tract · MN
Highland
7.9
/ 10 · High
Tract · MN
Rondo
7.9
/ 10 · High
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