Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #23,808 of 84,120 nationally
Beaver Lake Eviction Risk: Moderate , Oakdale
Tract 27163070912 · Washington County, MN · pop 2,858 · neighborhood within 1.3 mi
Tract 27163070912 sits in the Beaver Lake area of Oakdale eviction risk, MN, carrying an eviction-risk score of 5.5/10. It is home to 2,858 residents. The severe-burden share is 47%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
5.5
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 35%
Stable renters 16%
Owners 49%
Tract context
Occupied units1,385
Renter share50.9%
SVI overall0.80
Poverty rate13.2%
Median income$53,015
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
93
th percentile
Very High
Within state
79
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Oakdale and the region
Centroid at 44.9688, -92.9700 · click any tract to drill in
Why Beaver Lake scores 5.5
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Oakdale
5.9
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.5
State political climate
Minnesota legislature & governorship
4.3
Economic stress
13.2% poverty · this tract
3.3
Supply constraint
$1,481 rent vs county FMR
3.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from Oakdale
7.8
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Oakdale
5.2
Housing court bias
Inherited from Oakdale
5.7
How Beaver Lake compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 80
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 48%Socioeconomic
- 98%Household composition
- 58%Racial/ethnic minority
- 82%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 88Total filings over 3 yrs
- 4.19%Avg annual filing rate
- 4.9%Peak (2011)
- 24Filings in 2012 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 12.1%Housing insecurity
- 7.5%Utility-shutoff threat
- 16.2%Food insecurity
- 11.9%SNAP enrollment
- 9.3%Transit barriers
- 9.4%No health insurance
- 16.2%Frequent mental distress
- 33.1%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Beaver Lake
Cost burden runs around two-thirds here against 44.0% across Washington County. Annualized rent equals 34% of average household income of $53,015, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with. What pushes it up most is rent-regulation exposure at 7.8/10.
Against the Washington County average of 4.1, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.4 points. The filing record is not thin: 88 evictions over 3 years of observation.
Filings peaked in 2011 at 4.9% of renter households. In a typical year about 4.2% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 72nd percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.
Statute speed, court posture and rent-regulation exposure are inherited from Oakdale eviction risk rather than measured on these blocks; the economic and supply components are the tract-level part of the score. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 8.2/10. Statewide the MN average is 4.5, so this tract runs 1.0 points hotter.
Of its three components the household composition measure is the most pressured. Average gross rent is $1,481, close to the Oakdale average.
51% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 27163070912
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 27163070912?
Census tract 27163070912 in the Beaver Lake neighborhood scores 5.5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 27163070912?
Median gross rent is $1,481/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 69% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 27163070912?
13.2% of residents in tract 27163070912 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,858.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 27163070912?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 80th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 48th, household 98th, minority 58th, housing 82th.
Q5
Is tract 27163070912 considered part of Beaver Lake?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 27163070912 fall within Beaver Lake (neighborhood centroid within 1.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 27163070912?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 88 eviction filings across 3 validated years in tract 27163070912 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 4.19% of renter households, peaking at 4.9% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 27163070912 struggle to pay rent?
About 12.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 27163070912 compare to Oakdale overall?
Tract 27163070912 scores 5.5/10, higher than the parent city of Oakdale at 4.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Oakdale eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Oakdale
Top eight tracts in Oakdale ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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