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Neighborhood · Ranked #19,618 of 84,120 nationally

Gran Cielo Eviction Risk: Moderate , Bozeman

Tract 30031001102 · Gallatin County, MT · pop 5,352 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi

Tract 30031001102 sits in the Gran Cielo area of Bozeman eviction risk, MT, carrying an eviction-risk score of 5.9/10. Population here is 5,352. 44% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.

Risk score
5.9
Moderate
Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 38% Stable renters 21% Owners 41%
Tract context
Occupied units1,961
Renter share59.0%
SVI overall0.47
Poverty rate36.2%
Median income$66,688

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Gran Cielo
Moderate
Within parent city
85 th percentile
Rank, 85th percentileLowHigh
#3 of 14 tracts In Bozeman
High
Within county
84 th percentile
Rank, 84th percentileLowHigh
#5 of 26 tracts In Gallatin County
High
Within state
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 319 tracts In Montana
Very High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Bozeman and the region

Centroid at 45.6503, -111.0798 · click any tract to drill in

Why Gran Cielo scores 5.9

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Bozeman
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.4
State political climate
Montana legislature & governorship
1.7
Economic stress
36.2% poverty · this tract
9.0
Supply constraint
$1,801 rent vs county FMR
3.6
Rent control risk
Inherited from Bozeman
3.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Bozeman
5.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Bozeman
4.5

How Gran Cielo compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Gran Cielo risk score vs. parent city / county / state5.9This tracttract 0011024.5Bozemanparent city4.2Countyavg tract in county3.8Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 47

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 8Total filings over 2 yrs
  • 0.47%Avg annual filing rate
  • 0.6%Peak (2000)
  • 3Filings in 2001 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2000 to 2002
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 30031001102
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Gran Cielo

Against Gallatin County at 43.5%, 65% of renters here are cost-burdened. The dominant input is economic stress at 9/10.

The poverty rate is 36%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. Annualized rent equals 32% of average household income of $66,688, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with.

On the softer side, state political climate reads 1.7/10. It sits 1.7 points above the Gallatin County average of 4.2. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 8 filings here across 2 tracked years.

Running hot, local political climate reads 7/10. The worst year on record was 2000, when 0.6% of renter households were served.

In a typical year about 0.5% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 77th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.

On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 5.3/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Statewide the MT average is 3.8, so this tract runs 2.1 points hotter.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 30031001102

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 30031001102?

Census tract 30031001102 in the Gran Cielo neighborhood scores 5.9/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 30031001102?

Median gross rent is $1,801/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 65% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 30031001102?

36.2% of residents in tract 30031001102 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,352.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 30031001102?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 47th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 64th, household 2th, minority 29th, housing 88th.
Q5

Is tract 30031001102 considered part of Gran Cielo?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 30031001102 fall within Gran Cielo (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 30031001102?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 8 eviction filings across 2 validated years in tract 30031001102 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 0.47% of renter households, peaking at 0.6% in 2000. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 30031001102 struggle to pay rent?

About 10.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 30031001102 compare to Bozeman overall?

Tract 30031001102 scores 5.9/10, higher than the parent city of Bozeman at 4.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Bozeman eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Bozeman

Top eight tracts in Bozeman ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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