Castle Hill Eviction Risk: High , New York

At $727 a month, rents run 60% under what the rest of New York commands. Housing insecurity runs 44.3% against 14.2% nationally. The poverty rate is 45%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.

Running hot, tenant-organizing strength reads 9.8/10. 30% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.

On the high side, court filing pressure reads 9.6/10. This is renter territory: 86% of occupied units are tenant-occupied. Annualized rent equals 36% of average household income of $24,023, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with.

Disability prevalence runs 48.3% against 31.5% nationally. Cost burden runs about half here against 56.0% across Bronx County.

Court records carry 4,882 eviction filings across 8 observed years. Filings peaked in 2000 at 70.1% of renter households.

In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground C ("Definitely Declining"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today. In a typical year about 46.2% of renter households face a filing.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.