East Harlem Eviction Risk: High , New York

Average gross rent is $1,097, 40% below the New York average. 90% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. The severe-burden share is 23%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

Annualized rent equals 33% of average household income of $39,950, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with. On the high side, local political climate reads 8/10. The poverty rate is 27%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest.

Sitting well above the midpoint, state political climate reads 7.3/10. Food insecurity runs 26.4% against 17.8% nationally. Against the New York County average of 9.0, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 0.9 points.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 5,075 filings here across 7 tracked years. Housing insecurity runs 21.2% against 14.2% nationally.

The worst year on record was 2002, when 46.4% of renter households were served. This ground was mapped D ("Hazardous") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Manhattan. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.