Near Northeast Eviction Risk: High , Syracuse

The poverty rate is 48%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. 31% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.

It sits 2.5 points above the Onondaga County average of 6.6. This is renter territory: 88% of occupied units are tenant-occupied. Housing insecurity runs 25.7% against 14.2% nationally.

Sitting well above the midpoint, state political climate reads 7.3/10. 38% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, below the Onondaga County average of 43.5%.

Inability to pay a utility bill runs 17.5% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. Running hot, local political climate reads 7/10. In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground D ("Hazardous"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today.

That is riskier than roughly 95% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 7.9/10. Statewide the NY average is 7.7, so this tract runs 1.4 points hotter.

Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.