Neighborhood · Ranked #34,332 of 84,120 nationally

Turnberry Eviction Risk: Moderate , Chapel Hill

Tract 37135012101 · Orange County, NC · pop 3,730 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi

In the Turnberry neighborhood of Chapel Hill, census tract 37135012101 scores 5.3/10 for eviction risk. That is riskier than about 49% of US census tracts.

49% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 11% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $1,092 a month while the average household earns $56,250 a year, roughly 23% of income at the averages. Renters make up 63% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score

4.4

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 31% Stable renters 32% Owners 37%

Tract context

Occupied units1,526

Renter share63.1%

SVI overall0.88

Poverty rate9.9%

Median income$56,250

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Chapel Hill and the region

Centroid at 35.9362, -79.0149 · click any tract to drill in

Why Turnberry scores 4.4

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Chapel Hill

7.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

7.6

State political climate

North Carolina legislature & governorship

2.3

Economic stress

9.9% poverty · this tract

2.5

Supply constraint

$1,092 rent vs county FMR

1.0

Rent control risk

Inherited from Chapel Hill

2.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

4.0

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Chapel Hill

6.5

Housing court bias

Inherited from Chapel Hill

4.0

How Turnberry compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 88

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

73%Socioeconomic
83%Household composition
79%Racial/ethnic minority
90%Housing & transportation

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

10.1%Housing insecurity
6.2%Utility-shutoff threat
13.1%Food insecurity
9.0%SNAP enrollment
7.0%Transit barriers
9.7%No health insurance
14.5%Frequent mental distress
27.3%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Turnberry

The score leans hardest on tenant organizing strength at 6.5/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Chapel Hill eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Orange County average of 5.4 and in line with the North Carolina statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.

The tract is White and Hispanic or Latino and ranks around the 88th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.

In CDC survey modeling, about 10.1% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 6.2% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 37135012101

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 37135012101?

Census tract 37135012101 in the Turnberry neighborhood scores 4.4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 37135012101?

Median gross rent is $1,092/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 49% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 37135012101?

9.9% of residents in tract 37135012101 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,730.

How socially vulnerable is tract 37135012101?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 88th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 73th, household 83th, minority 79th, housing 90th.

Is tract 37135012101 considered part of Turnberry?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 37135012101 fall within Turnberry (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 37135012101 struggle to pay rent?

About 10.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 37135012101 compare to Chapel Hill overall?

Tract 37135012101 scores 4.4/10, higher than the parent city of Chapel Hill at 3.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Chapel Hill eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Chapel Hill

Top eight tracts in Chapel Hill ranked by composite eviction-risk score.