Neighborhood · Ranked #66,742 of 84,120 nationally

Bel Air Eviction Risk: Lower , Minot

Tract 38101010302 · Ward County, ND · pop 5,319 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi

Eviction risk in Bel Air in Minot centers on tract 38101010302, which scores 3.5/10 (Lower tier) and is home to 5,319 residents. That is riskier than roughly 5% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 27% of renter households, a moderate level, and 14% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $816 monthly, set against $88,750 in average yearly household income, roughly 11% of income at the averages. Renters make up 28% of occupied homes.

Risk score

2.5

Lower

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 8% Stable renters 20% Owners 72%

Tract context

Occupied units2,168

Renter share28.0%

SVI overall0.16

Poverty rate4.7%

Median income$88,750

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Minot and the region

Centroid at 48.2498, -101.3248 · click any tract to drill in

Why Bel Air scores 2.5

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Minot

3.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

2.8

State political climate

North Dakota legislature & governorship

1.5

Economic stress

4.7% poverty · this tract

1.2

Supply constraint

$816 rent vs county FMR

2.8

Rent control risk

Inherited from Minot

3.3

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

1.0

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Minot

8.3

Housing court bias

Inherited from Minot

4.2

How Bel Air compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 16

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

19%Socioeconomic
51%Household composition
27%Racial/ethnic minority
12%Housing & transportation

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

8.2%Housing insecurity
5.3%Utility-shutoff threat
9.1%Food insecurity
5.5%SNAP enrollment
5.8%Transit barriers
6.5%No health insurance
13.9%Frequent mental distress
25.6%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Bel Air

The score leans hardest on tenant organizing strength at 8.3/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Minot eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores below the Ward County average of 3.9 and above the North Dakota statewide average of 3.1. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 8.2% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 5.3% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 16th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.

For a landlord, this is among the easier places to operate: faster process, lighter tenant-protection overhead, and shorter typical cases.

Frequently asked

About tract 38101010302

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 38101010302?

Census tract 38101010302 in the Bel Air neighborhood scores 2.5/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 38101010302?

Median gross rent is $816/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 27% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 38101010302?

4.7% of residents in tract 38101010302 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,319.

How socially vulnerable is tract 38101010302?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 16th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 19th, household 51th, minority 27th, housing 12th.

Is tract 38101010302 considered part of Bel Air?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 38101010302 fall within Bel Air (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 38101010302 struggle to pay rent?

About 8.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 38101010302 compare to Minot overall?

Tract 38101010302 scores 2.5/10, higher than the parent city of Minot at 1.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Minot eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Minot

Top eight tracts in Minot ranked by composite eviction-risk score.