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Neighborhood · Ranked #15,522 of 84,120 nationally

Downtown Eviction Risk: Moderate , Toledo

Tract 39095002800 · Lucas County, OH · pop 1,400 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi

Here is how census tract 39095002800, in the Downtown neighborhood of Toledo eviction risk, looks to a landlord: a 5.5/10 eviction-risk score (Moderate tier) across a population of 1,400. That is riskier than roughly 56% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.

22% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a modest level, and 7% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is about $850 a month. About 98% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score
5.7
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 21% Stable renters 76% Owners 3%
Tract context
Occupied units714
Renter share97.8%
SVI overall0.57
Poverty rate37.0%

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Downtown
Moderate
Within parent city
80 th percentile
Rank, 80th percentileLowHigh
#25 of 121 tracts In Toledo
High
Within county
88 th percentile
Rank, 88th percentileLowHigh
#21 of 168 tracts In Lucas County
High
Within state
91 th percentile
Rank, 91st percentileLowHigh
#294 of 3,162 tracts In Ohio
Very High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Toledo and the region

Centroid at 41.6543, -83.5358 · click any tract to drill in

Why Downtown scores 5.7

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Toledo
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.8
State political climate
Ohio legislature & governorship
2.4
Economic stress
37.0% poverty · this tract
9.3
Supply constraint
$850 rent vs county FMR
3.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Toledo
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Toledo
4.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Toledo
4.0

How Downtown compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Downtown risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 5.75.7This tracttract 002800Toledo: 3.33.3Toledoparent cityCounty: 4.14.1Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.73.7Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 57

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 1,051Total filings over 15 yrs
  • 11.57%Avg annual filing rate
  • 18.9%Peak (2005)
  • 47Filings in 2018 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2003 to 2018
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 390950028002003: 95 filings (19.71/100 renter HHs)2004: 52 filings (10.79/100 renter HHs)2005: 108 filings (18.88/100 renter HHs)2006: 71 filings (12.41/100 renter HHs)2007: 56 filings (9.79/100 renter HHs)2008: 38 filings (6.64/100 renter HHs)2009: 55 filings (9.62/100 renter HHs)2010: 82 filings (12.79/100 renter HHs)2011: 72 filings (10.64/100 renter HHs)2012: 81 filings (11.96/100 renter HHs)2013: 81 filings (11.96/100 renter HHs)2014: 62 filings (9.16/100 renter HHs)2015: 97 filings (14.33/100 renter HHs)2016: 54 filings (7.96/100 renter HHs)2018: 47 filings (6.93/100 renter HHs)
Filings dropped 51% over the past 15 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Downtown

The heaviest input here is economic stress at 9.3/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Toledo eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Lucas County average of 5.5 and above the Ohio statewide average of 5.1. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 22.2% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 17.9% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

This tract overlaps land the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation redlined in the 1930s, a dominant grade of D ("Hazardous") across 14% of the tract. Redlining cut off mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class blocks, and those areas still tend to carry higher rent burden and eviction filings today.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 39095002800

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 39095002800?

Census tract 39095002800 in the Downtown neighborhood scores 5.7/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 39095002800?

Median gross rent is $850/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 22% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 39095002800?

37.0% of residents in tract 39095002800 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,400.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 39095002800?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 57th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 74th, household 3th, minority 67th, housing 78th.
Q5

Is tract 39095002800 considered part of Downtown?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 39095002800 fall within Downtown (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 39095002800?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 1,051 eviction filings across 15 validated years in tract 39095002800 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 11.57% of renter households, peaking at 18.9% in 2005. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 39095002800 struggle to pay rent?

About 22.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 17.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 39095002800 compare to Toledo overall?

Tract 39095002800 scores 5.7/10, higher than the parent city of Toledo at 3.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Toledo eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9

Was tract 39095002800 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 14% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Toledo

Top eight tracts in Toledo ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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