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Neighborhood · Ranked #24,859 of 84,120 nationally

Northlawn Eviction Risk: Moderate , Toledo

Tract 39095000900 · Lucas County, OH · pop 2,059 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi

39095000900 is a census tract in the Northlawn area of Toledo, OH. It scores 5.4/10 for landlords. The severe-burden share is 42%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

Risk score
5.4
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 26% Stable renters 13% Owners 61%
Tract context
Occupied units833
Renter share38.5%
SVI overall0.80
Poverty rate43.9%
Median income$32,112

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 3 tracts In Northlawn
Very High
Within parent city
82 th percentile
Rank, 82nd percentileLowHigh
#23 of 121 tracts In Toledo
High
Within county
79 th percentile
Rank, 79th percentileLowHigh
#36 of 168 tracts In Lucas County
High
Within state
83 th percentile
Rank, 83rd percentileLowHigh
#554 of 3,162 tracts In Ohio
High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Toledo and the region

Centroid at 41.6922, -83.5414 · click any tract to drill in

Why Northlawn scores 5.4

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Toledo
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.8
State political climate
Ohio legislature & governorship
2.4
Economic stress
43.9% poverty · this tract
10.0
Supply constraint
$1,029 rent vs county FMR
4.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from Toledo
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Toledo
4.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Toledo
4.0

How Northlawn compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Northlawn risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 5.45.4This tracttract 000900Toledo: 4.04.0Toledoparent cityCounty: 4.24.2Countyavg tract in countyState: 4.24.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 80

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 1,038Total filings over 15 yrs
  • 14.04%Avg annual filing rate
  • 18.3%Peak (2003)
  • 56Filings in 2018 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2003 to 2018
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 390950009002003: 92 filings (18.29/100 renter HHs)2004: 80 filings (15.90/100 renter HHs)2005: 81 filings (15.08/100 renter HHs)2006: 67 filings (12.48/100 renter HHs)2007: 90 filings (16.76/100 renter HHs)2008: 72 filings (13.41/100 renter HHs)2009: 90 filings (16.76/100 renter HHs)2010: 66 filings (13.44/100 renter HHs)2011: 62 filings (13.66/100 renter HHs)2012: 61 filings (13.44/100 renter HHs)2013: 63 filings (13.88/100 renter HHs)2014: 62 filings (13.66/100 renter HHs)2015: 51 filings (11.23/100 renter HHs)2016: 45 filings (10.09/100 renter HHs)2018: 56 filings (12.56/100 renter HHs)
Filings dropped 39% over the past 15 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Northlawn. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Northlawn

Cost burden runs 67% here against 41.3% across Lucas County. The score leans hardest on economic stress at 10/10.

SNAP participation runs 44.3% against 15.2% nationally. The poverty rate is 44%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Set annual rent against average income of $32,112 and the ratio lands at 38%, above the conventional 30% ceiling.

On the high side, court filing pressure reads 8.9/10. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 26.3% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.

Running cool, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.5/10. Against the Lucas County average of 4.2, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.2 points.

The filing record is not thin: 1,038 evictions over 15 years of observation. Average gross rent is $1,029, 14% above the Toledo average. The worst year on record was 2003, when 18.3% of renter households were served.

In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground C ("Definitely Declining"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 39095000900

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 39095000900?

Census tract 39095000900 in the Northlawn neighborhood scores 5.4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 39095000900?

Median gross rent is $1,029/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 67% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 39095000900?

43.9% of residents in tract 39095000900 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,059.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 39095000900?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 80th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 85th, household 81th, minority 77th, housing 47th.
Q5

Is tract 39095000900 considered part of Northlawn?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 39095000900 fall within Northlawn (neighborhood centroid within 0.8 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 39095000900?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 1,038 eviction filings across 15 validated years in tract 39095000900 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 14.04% of renter households, peaking at 18.3% in 2003. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 39095000900 struggle to pay rent?

About 30.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 26.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 39095000900 compare to Toledo overall?

Tract 39095000900 scores 5.4/10, higher than the parent city of Toledo at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Toledo eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9

Was tract 39095000900 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Toledo

Top eight tracts in Toledo ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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