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Neighborhood · Ranked #11,930 of 84,120 nationally

Cottage Grove Eviction Risk: Elevated , Youngstown

Tract 39099801600 · Mahoning County, OH · pop 2,587 · neighborhood within 0.0 mi

Tract 39099801600, home to 2,587 residents in Cottage Grove in Youngstown, scores 7.1/10 for landlord eviction risk. On the national scale it ranks #4,050 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

61% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 24% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $925 monthly, set against $29,120 in average yearly household income, roughly 38% of income at the averages. Renters make up 55% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score
6
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 34% Stable renters 21% Owners 45%
Tract context
Occupied units833
Renter share55.5%
SVI overall0.92
Poverty rate48.2%
Median income$29,120

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Cottage Grove
Moderate
Within parent city
80 th percentile
Rank, 80th percentileLowHigh
#7 of 31 tracts In Youngstown
High
Within county
93 th percentile
Rank, 93rd percentileLowHigh
#6 of 75 tracts In Mahoning County
Very High
Within state
97 th percentile
Rank, 97th percentileLowHigh
#93 of 3,162 tracts In Ohio
Very High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Youngstown and the region

Centroid at 41.0664, -80.6533 · click any tract to drill in

Why Cottage Grove scores 6

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Youngstown
5.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
4.9
State political climate
Ohio legislature & governorship
2.4
Economic stress
48.2% poverty · this tract
10.0
Supply constraint
$925 rent vs county FMR
5.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Youngstown
7.8
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.7
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Youngstown
8.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from Youngstown
8.6

How Cottage Grove compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Cottage Grove risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 6.06.0This tracttract 801600Youngstown: 3.23.2Youngstownparent cityCounty: 4.34.3Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.73.7Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 92

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: B: Still Desirable

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade B meant middle-class areas with mortgage access. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 619Total filings over 7 yrs
  • 13.59%Avg annual filing rate
  • 17.2%Peak (2014)
  • 104Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2009 to 2016
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 390998016002009: 62 filings (8.12/100 renter HHs)2010: 73 filings (11.55/100 renter HHs)2011: 101 filings (15.76/100 renter HHs)2012: 90 filings (14.04/100 renter HHs)2013: 79 filings (12.32/100 renter HHs)2014: 110 filings (17.16/100 renter HHs)2016: 104 filings (16.17/100 renter HHs)
Filings climbed 68% over the past 7 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Cottage Grove

The score leans hardest on economic stress at $1/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Youngstown eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Mahoning County average of 5.8 and above the Ohio statewide average of 5.1. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 34.8% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 30.1% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

The tract is Black and White and ranks around the 92nd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 39099801600

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 39099801600?

Census tract 39099801600 in the Cottage Grove neighborhood scores 6/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 39099801600?

Median gross rent is $925/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 61% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 39099801600?

48.2% of residents in tract 39099801600 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,587.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 39099801600?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 92th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 90th, household 95th, minority 84th, housing 68th.
Q5

Is tract 39099801600 considered part of Cottage Grove?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 39099801600 fall within Cottage Grove (neighborhood centroid within 0.0 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 39099801600?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 619 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 39099801600 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 13.59% of renter households, peaking at 17.2% in 2014. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 39099801600 struggle to pay rent?

About 34.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 30.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 39099801600 compare to Youngstown overall?

Tract 39099801600 scores 6/10, higher than the parent city of Youngstown at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Youngstown eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9

Was tract 39099801600 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of B. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Youngstown

Top eight tracts in Youngstown ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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