Dayton Eviction Risk: Moderate

The severe-burden share is 22%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. This is renter territory: 66% of occupied units are tenant-occupied. Housing insecurity runs 29.1% against 14.2% nationally.

On the softer side, supply constraint reads 2/10. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 22.7% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. On the high side, court filing pressure reads 7.7/10.

The poverty rate is 21%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. At $749 a month, rents run 18% under what the rest of Dayton commands. Against the Montgomery County average of 4.2, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.1 points.

37% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, below the Montgomery County average of 42.9%. Court records carry 1,507 eviction filings across 17 observed years. Filings peaked in 2008 at 16.6% of renter households.

In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground C ("Definitely Declining"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today. In a typical year about 14.7% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 67th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.